Almost all the exit polls have
predicted a comfortable win for the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi elections, and
for those who believe them, the Modi-Shah magic is likely to fail in mini-India
when the results are announced on February 10.
Assuming that the results will
be on the line of the exit polls, the question is what happened? Why did the
same people who had voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in the last year’s general
election voted for AAP this time?
It will not be an exaggeration to
say that the Delhi BJP took the elections ‘lightly’. Their campaign started a
long time after AAP, its chief political enemy, had begun its. AAP had already secured a sizeable space in the minds and heart of the voters through the virtually nonstop radio
jingles, white Nehru cap and smiling volunteers who had come on the street and
started ‘mohalla’ campaigning as early as October, by the time BJP decided to rock
and roll. The inclination to open the doors for a neighbor, who has been around
for sometime rather than someone who has just arrived, is more.
The local Delhi leaders were banking
heavily on the ‘Modi magic’ to counter the AAP’s outreach that had spread on
the ground through its loyal cadre. BJP leaders with whom I was speaking to, in
the run up to the election, had no hesitation in agreeing that AAP was in a
much stronger position but in the same breath they told me that 3 to 4 rallies
of Modi would blow away everything that was remotely connected to AAP. The rallies did happen, but by then, the AAP
had strongly entrenched itself to be blown away.
The BJP forgot that in the Lok
Sabha elections, the support for Modi was more or less equal to the anger the
people had against the ‘corrupt-inefficient-weak’ Congress government. The voters
at that time had to decide between the rookie AAP, that was not a
national force, and the resurgent BJP led by the macho Modi. They took the
logical decision. However in the Delhi elections, it was not about anger, it
was more about the perception about the new union government. The question in mind
was has the Modi government done enough in the last 8 months it has been in
power? BJP leaders say that much has been done by the new government and if
that is the case, then they should also agree that despite the media blitzkrieg,
the BJP was not able to convey this message to the voters. Some BJP leaders will
defend the result of Delhi assembly election by stating that it does not
reflect upon the working of the central government. I am sorry, it does.
The BJP overplayed the alleged 'anarchist' tendency of AAP. When did being a 'krantikari' became a taboo in this country? Acting 'rebellious', questioning the establishment, the status-quo, tilting towards anarchism has been the hallmark of Indians, since time immemorial. Kejriwal might have taken some wrong steps during his 49 days as CM but the way BJP tried to sell his 'anarchism' clearly did not work.
During the 49 days the AAP was in power, they managed to gain the trust of the lower income group. And even though a section of the middle-class grew disenchanted with AAP, these loyal supporters, from the auto-rickshaw drivers to the house-maid, remained loyal and the party was able to cash-in their goodwill in this election.
The BJP party needs to introspect
on why it did not call for a fresh poll when Kejriwal, the ‘Bhagoda’ resigned
suddenly. A majority of the the voters who had supported him had now become angry with him and
wanted to teach him a lesson for not valuing the people’s mandate. The BJP was
on ‘high’ at that time with Modi being virtually the messenger of god (no pun intended) that
India was waiting for. However for some ‘god-only-knows’ reason, the party
decided to wait and watch. Whoever advised the party to not to go for elections
needs to be hanged by the strongest rope from the highest tree. His advice
seems to have cost Delhi. The party needs to identify these Jaychands and Vibhishans.
In the last leg of the campaigning,
negative connotation crept into the picture. Calling names, printing of not- so-soul-enriching advertisements targeting AAP and Kejriwal were bombarded on the same Delhi
voters, who not too long ago, inspired by Modi, had voted for BJP for ‘positive
campaigning’ and ‘good governance’ and in the process elected many non-existent
political entity from Delhi. Party strategists should understand that contrary to
the vile in social media, the general public of this country still lives by the
century old adage- ‘Pyar se maango, jaan de denge”.
The paratrooping of Kiran
Bedi, the woman who till the polling day, was not able to shake off her narcissism,
proved to be proverbial final straw that broke the BJP’s back. “The main- main, “mainey yeh kiya, mainey woh kiya,
mai yeh karungi, mai woh karungi”, did not go down too well with the Delhi voters.
Compare her with Harshvardan, the former BJP CM candidate. Harvardhan, the humble
doctor, modest family man, camera shy, always smiling politician. The man who for years
now has been the common Aadmi of Delhi BJP.
Bedi, the moment she joined the BJP, played the match as if it was about
her and not the BJP. Antagonizing the cadre and largely ignoring them, she gave a message that
she has been hand-picked by Modi himself, which might not have been the case.
Finally, people will read too
much into this electoral result and portray it as the election where the Modi
halo was breached. But the point is in a democracy, elections are won and lost.
That is what the will of people is, always oscillating, never staying still.
Bihar, where the next electoral battle will be played out, may give a totally
different picture. A BJP win or loss, whatever happens in the end, should not lie squarely on the shoulders of Modi. The blame or the accolades, as the case maybe, should be shared by everyone, from the party cadre to the union ministers and by the PM himself.
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