The Chinese move (s)

Abhinandan Mishra

New Delhi

The India-China standoff, which is in its 9^th months now, could not have come at a better time for it has brought a global focus on the inevitable dangers of the expansionist mindset of China which, from thoughts, has now started to take shape on the ground.

India is fighting its battle, through diplomacy and by fortifying its position in Eastern Ladakh and by ‘dominating’ regions which were earlier not under its control. However, the more important point that needs to be debated is the danger of an ‘irresponsible’ super-power that China is turning out to be as it aims to replace the United States from the long-held position of a global superpower.

The world needs to understand that what China is doing with India- by trying to seize Indian territories- is not just an act to increase the land under its control. The real intention is to give a message to the world leaders, the global policy makers that China has ‘arrived’ and it needs to be feared if not respected.

As of now, due to the fore-sightedness of Indian policy makers, who for years have taken the Chinese factor into consideration while formulating long term security strategies, Indian armed forces are well prepared to stop China from physically taking over any Indian territory. However, the other neighboring countries simply do not have the wherewithal to stop China from taking over their territory if it decides to, as Nepal is witnessing.

It is in that context that the aggressive posture that China has adapted against India, in the last few months, becomes important.

Old people and ancient sayings will tell you that it is prudent to confront one strong opponent, defeat him which will give the required message to the other smaller opponents rather than waste time and resources on defeating every single opponent. That’s what China is doing.

It wants to give a message to the world that it considers the country- which is the third largest global economy (by purchasing power parity), has the largest ground force, fourth largest air force and the seventh largest navy- as nothing.

By engaging in a needless border stand-off with India on its Eastern border, and promoting terror in close coordination with its all weather friend Pakistan at India’s Western border, China is also ensuring that India spends a vast amount of its tangible resources on augmenting and procuring new arms and defense platforms rather than spending the same on developing critical infrastructure that will boost the local and global economy. This is the more sinister of the Chinese objective that the world needs to take note of.

It is also important to understand that all this border issue was brought into existence at a time when the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gone out of the established protocol to nurture close ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This is an example of the often forgotten and ignored ‘dagger in the cloak’ state-craft which China seems to have perfected.

The United States- as the series of agreements that it signed with India in the last couple of years show, coupled with the recently declassified US-Indo pacific strategy document proves- needs a strong and well developed India to stop the rampaging China, especially when it comes to its gargantuan economic power.

And this is something which China has also realized. A strong India, that has a democratic setup, will always continue to emerge as the proverbial Himalayan wall to stop China’s expansionism. Weakening India is not the ultimate objective of China, it is its first step towards a much larger sinister plan, something the world leaders need to realize.

The much imagined ‘two-front’ war is already staring at India

Abhinandan Mishra

With the 9th round of talks between the representative of the Indian army and his Chinese counterpart too failing to resolve the India-China border stand-off on Sunday, there is nothing left but to speculate on how and when will the situation at India's Eastern border return to 'normalcy' as it was in April 2020 before the Chinese troops entered into 'disputed' territories and occupied them.

While the talks are continuing and will continue, the bigger picture that is probably being ignored is how India, in all practical purposes, is now engaged in a '2 front war' with Pakistan on the West and China on the East.

As of today, more than 50000 Indian troops, excluding multiple precious 'assets' are deployed at its Eastern border in a state of 'combat readiness'. This in simple terms means the troops and the machines are just one step away from indulging in armed combat.  The same, as is the common knowledge, is the situation on the borders that it shares with Pakistan.

What does this imply for India if this standoff with China continues for perpetuity? 

The first implication of this will be that China would officially emerge as India's ‘enemy number 1’, as the then defence minister George Fernandes had called the country in 1998.

All future Indian defence procurements, strategic policies, trade agreements, diplomatic ties will be based on this template. So far, a majority of such decisions are taken while keeping Pakistan as our main adversary. It is pertinent to mention at this point that India last year has already passed a law that calls for government permission before FDI coming from bordering countries (China) is allowed into India.

There is no match between China and Pakistan when it comes to military and economic power. While India could manage by spending a modest amount of its resources on defence procurement as its focus was Pakistan, the same will not hold true once it accepts China as its primary adversary. The bigger, larger the opponent, the more resources one has to spend to counter him. Now, India will procure the artillery, the aircrafts and the infantry equipment while keeping what China has, which are definitely better than what Pakistan has. And they will cost more.

Wars and war like situations are only beneficial to the arms manufacturers, not to the citizens for which the wars are being fought. The India-China stand off  will force Indian policy makers to take out capital and time meant for other needs like health, education and infrastructure and divert them to defence. And they cannot be blamed for it.

This will delay, if not stop, India's effort to increase the quality of life it offers to its citizens and hurt the economy as infrastructure in inland areas will suffer, temporarily, as the focus will be more on augmenting the infrastructure at the border areas.

The two front war scenario, in which one of the opponents is a country which is on the cusp of being a super-power, will force India to strive for coming more closer to and become dependent  on other super-power (U.S) and cultivate relationship with other strong regional allies like Australia, Japan and Vietnam. This is inevitable, any country in place of India, too would have to do the same.

Pakistan's (mis)-adventurism is likely to increase in the coming months as a bullish China, that will keep needling India. China knows the advantage of having Pakistan as its ally in the war against India. If Pakistan was not Pakistan, and it was a friendly neighbor like Sri-Lanka, India's only concern would have been China. So China needs Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs China to stop India from becoming 'big'.

Please understand that a 'disruptive' activity like the 9/11 attack, Mumbai attack, Pulwama bombing changes the priority, focus, concern of any country within a matter of seconds. A welfare state, a state whose primary activity should be to strive to make life better for its citizens, suddenly becomes an aggressive entity, keen on avenging and securing itself.

India's two-front challenge is truly here, and it came just like that, without any explosion.

The writer is a New Delhi based journalist with over 10 years of experience in reporting on topics related to politics, state craft and security.

Twitter- mishra_abhi

Mobile- 9650375758