Sunday, August 26, 2007

What if the Left, for a change really decides to pull out ?

Who wins and who doesn't in MP, Bihar and Chattisgarh

If the Lok Sabha elections are held immediately, the BJP may suffer heavily in Bihar and Chhattisgarh. But, with the Congress a strongly divided house in Madhya Pradesh, the same may not hold true for the central state. Though It can be safely said that the Bahujan Samaj Party will gain in MP.
The BSP which had organised a big rally of upper caste-Brahmins and Dalit in Bhopallast week, would do particularly well in Chambal and Vindya belt, comprising Rewa, Satna,Gwaliar and Bhind.
According to the political observers,the BJP may lose some important seats in Chhattisgarh, particularly in the tribal dominated Bastar and Surguja regions,from where it had won all the seats previously .The BJP has nine out of 11 members in the Lok Sabha from the state.

In the 2004 elections, the Congress had won the Mahasamund seat only , but in the by-elections held a few months back, the Congress captured Rajnandgaon seat which was retained by the BJP in 2004 elections.

The observers pointed out that the anti-incumbency factor would work strongly against the BJP, particularly the common -man and the common workers of the BJP are strongly against the chief minister, Raman Singh.The BJP government could not keep its promise of supplying Cows, Charan padukas (Shoes),free salt and subsidized gas cylinders in the rural areas. The party could not also keep control on corruption as there has been several cases of corruption confirmed by the committees of the state assembly, like the infamous Kunkuri rice scandal of Jashpur district.

The BJP may be able to capture only three to four seats, these observers feel and claimed the Congress would emerge stronger because of default.In Bihar, the recent floods and poor relief management may cause set back to the BJP in the elections,if held immediately. There has been several incidents of people being killed in police firings and riots over distribution of relief materials. The BJP would be sufferer as its leaders did not come to the aid of the common-man.

The RSS had the practice of rushing to the aid of the masses in distress, but in the instant case, the RSS cadre remained silent. Maybe because the CM, Nitish Kumar is from JD-U.

The Congress which has three members in the Lok Sabha from Bihar may not be able to improve its tally. This can be attributed to the fact that the Congress leaders, like their distant cousins remained inactive during distress of the people.In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has 25 out of 29 members in the Lok Sabha, the Congress has four, including Jytoridatiya Scindia and Kamal Nath.

The Congress is a deeply divided house in Madhya Pradesh with Digvijay Singh, Subhas Yadav and Jamuna Devi, all having their own different followings and different programmes. Uma Bharti who had helped the BJP to victory in the last elections may definitely cut into the strong BJP vote bank and may help the new combination formed by the Bahujan Samaj Party to get three to four seats in Chambal and Vindhya regions.

Satna, Rewa, Gwalior, Bhind and Morena may go to the BSP with the support of the Brahmins who have a very strong say in these areas.The BSP may also get support of the Gondwana Gantantra Party in the Mahakoshla belt where the regional party has strong following and this may affect the prospects of the BJP and the Congress.

The Congress may not be able to retain even the four seats in the present House from MP. Scindia junior had won the last elections with poor margin and with the BSP becoming more stronger, he may find it difficult to re-enter the Lok Sabha, according to the political observers.

Overall ‘an interesting battle’ ; if it happens that is.

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