The exuberance of Sukma collector and the security failure

Jagdalpur/Sukma

Even though there is a lot of resentment among the common people against the maoist over the abduction of Sukma district Alex Paul Menon but still many feel that this was an incident which could have been avoided had police and the collector himself been more careful.

According to locals the police protection provided to Menon who was abducted by the maoist as he was listening to villagers in Keralapal during the Gram Suraj Abhiyan was absolutely negligible. He was only provided with two gunmen, Kisan Kujur and Ahmed, both of whom were shot dead by the maoist which had woman members too.

Senior Congress leader and former minister Satyanarayan Sharma said that if more protection was given to the officer who was posted in a maoist hotbed then the incident would not have happened. “I was in Sukma two days before he was abducted and  it was visible that adequate protection was not being given to the officers who were involved in the Gram Suraj Abhiyaan.”

This was admitted by a senior police official in Police Head quarters Raipur. “Security failure did happen. On Friday just a day before Menon’s abduction the maoist had done a land mine blast in which threepeople were killed. This should have alerted the police and the threat perception should have been reviewed, which was not done.”

A police sources said that even the Intelligence Bureau had given the state government inputs that the maosits are going to target bureaucrats.

The source added  that lapse on the part of the security cover made Menon a soft target. “There was negligence on the part of the police.” The same sentiments were echoed by journalists who have been following the event. They however added that the fault lies with Menon too. “He is an IAS officer and he should have realized that he was a high value target and taken necessary precaution. Now the state government will pay the price of his carelessness by releasing hard core maoists”.

The place from where Menon was abducted at around 4.30 PM is close to a CRPF camp that is located just 3 Km away but even then also the maoist could easily come and execute their plan. He was accompanied by other senior officials of the district including the SDM,CEO, BEO, none of whom were even touched by the maoist who had obviously come with a fixed target in mind.

Karan Singh a local politician that the town is still to come in terms with the event that has suddenly made Sukma a house hold name. “Menon joined here only three months back and this was his first posting. Why adequate protection was not provided to him is something that only the officials can say.”

Sukma Live

Reenactment of the popular 2010 Bollywood movie ‘Peepli Live” which took a dig at the electronic media is taking place in Sukma from where Alex Paul Menon was abducted by the maoists.

The sudden convergence of media personals, police and politicians to this small district has provided an opportunity for the poor villagers to earn extra income as make shift shops selling eatables and tea have come up in the popular points of Sukma.

Karan Dev, a local resident said that this was for the first time that he was watching the national media anchors personally. “I had never seen the logo of news channel so closely before nor had I seen vans with umbrella like structure on their top (OB vans). So many outsiders have come here and they are just running from one place to the other.”

Binayak Sen – we a nation of hypocrites

The conviction of Dr.Binayak Sen for life by a Chhattisgarh court for supporting the naxalites has drawn expression of anger and sadness from many quarters. Which I dare to say was expected.

Sen was arrested by the the Chhattisgarh police in 2007 for allegedly acting as a courier between a jailed naxal leader and a businessman.

The reactions that have come from various sides of the globe have blasted the Indian judiciary, the Indian governing system and alike to all corners. Activists have till now organized many a rallies in support of the doctor. One such rally was organized in the heart of Delhi where the great “Arundhati Roy” too made her presence felt. Online petitions have already flooded emails of many an enlightened Indians asking them to register their protest. Amnesty too has joined in.

The charade of the 'intellectuals' is at full swing for the world to see and to mock the Indian democracy which according to them is trembling in fear of a doctor.

Diminishing returns of Congress

The political assessment about Congress’s future in the Hindi belt of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar appears bleak and weak .

In Madhya Pradesh, the state Congress in being headed by Suresh Pachouri, a leader who has never won an election, not even that of municipality. On top of that, Suhash Yadav, Jamuna Devi, Digvijay singh, Kamal Nath, Arjun singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia, all have their own nut to grind leaving Pachori with the difficult task of pleasing everyone and dislodging the firmly rooted BJP from the state. In short Pachouri has to manoeuver through a maze that has no end.

The tremors of intra-party factionalism has never allowed Pachouri to prepare for himself a firm ground, standing on which he can at least think of challenging Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

At the moment, most of the strings that are controlled by the Digvijays, the Kamalnaths and the Scindias are being pulled from Delhi, but once the monsoon of election sets in, all these clouds will make a beeline for Madhya Pradesh and then Pachouri will have his task cut out.

Relationship between Pachouri and KamalNath are not in the best of state and only time will tell how much damage will the Chindwara power house do to Pachori. Ajay Singh, son of Arjun Singh and Nakul Nath,son of Kamal Nath will add their own bit to the whole story as both of them will try to establish themselves in the political map of the state and the assembly elections will be the arena that will decide their rise or fall.

While commenting on the situation of Congress in Bihar one will strain his yes and yet find no leaders to talk or write of. The word ‘bleak’ will be an understatement to describe the situation, as the state congress is virtually defunct in this eastern state.

The fact that AICC secretary in charge KC Deo, who was the State Congress in-charge for one year, never thought of visiting Bihar even once speaks volumes about the importance the Congress leadership attaches to Bihar.

There are only three Congress MPs from Bihar in the parliament. Nikhil Kumar (former Delhi police commissioner and son of former chief minister,Satyendra Narayan Sinha), Meira Kumar (daughter of Babu Jagjivan Ram) and Shakeel Ahmed(son of former Bihar speaker,Shakoor Ahmad). The party also has merely nine MLAs in the state assembly, and no one will surprised if it’s representation in the state goes down even further in the future.

Recently, Bihar Pradesh Congress saw a new chief being appointed. Anil Sharma who has emerged through the corridors of student politics of Patna University recently replaced Sadanand Singh.

Sharma, like Pachouri has never won an election not was even an MLC, fits more comfortably in the role of a palmist. He is an expert palmist and astrologer and if one is to go by news coming from within the party, Sharma got the job after he was recommended by Vincent George, the ‘now-almost-forgotten’ secretary of Ms.Sonia Gandhi. George reportedly pushed Sharma’s candidature because he was pleased by the accuracy of the forecasts predicated by him while reading George’s palm.

Unlike in other states, in Bihar it is Lalu Yadav who decides the ticket distribution for the Congress party. The state Congress has paid a very heavy price to keep the alliance between the RJD and the UPA at the Centre functioning. Lalu while working in a systematic way has made sure that Congress is brought down to a point, from where it will take years if not decades to stand up again. And the one party that has gained from this has been Ram Vilas Pawan’s LJP. For years to come the electorate battle in the state will be fought between the troika of JD (U), the RJD and the LJP. Leaving both the main national parties, the BJP and the Congress to play the role of a mere substitute

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress is going to contest the elections on its own strength. In the past, it had made “strategic arrangements” with the Bahujan Samaj party and the Left giving them a couple of constituencies, but in Bihar, it is dependent on the RJD only. If it goes alone in Bihar, the party can become organizationally stronger. The party leaders had recently told the treasurer, Motilal Vora that the workers at the grass root level were “jobless” even during the election campaign as they were not required for campaign as most of the seats were given to the RJD in alliance. They feared the party may lose its ground in the villages, if this trend continued for long .The party may no win more seats, but it may be revived with the “involvement” of the workers in the villages.

In Chhattisgarh the prospects appear better for the Congress, as the tribal belt of Surguja and Bastar are not happy with their respective BJP MLAs. In the previous election, it was this belt which voted against the Congress and led BJP to power. The Salva Judum movement too will come into play as most of the tribals are disenchanted by it. This tribal belt will perhaps decide that who amongst the seekers will finally get the treasure.

The tickets for the forthcoming assembly elections is Chhattisgarh will be distributed through mainly two counters; one being manned by the former CM and MP Ajit jogi and the other that has the octogenarian Motilal Vohra at its helm. In the political equation that will possibly emerge in this state, many other leaders like Satyanarayan Sharma, Charan das Mahant, VC Shukla will also play small yet pivotal part to make the equation more ‘exciting’.

The intra-party factionalism and the honest image of Raman Singh will be the only thing that may stop Congress from capturing the required number of seats. While on one hand the Rs 3 kg rice scheme for the poor in Chhattisgarh may help Raman Singh to retain the tribals votes but on the other the below satisfactory performance of his colleagues among the tribals will make it difficult for Raman to consolidate on the advantage that he will get from the rice scheme.

Dilip Singh Judeo, who was a chief ministerial candidate in 2003 has been sidelined and is now busy with his re-conversion programmes.

The factionalism that has emerged in this state has led to the birth of two poles for the Congress workers to choose from. ‘With Jogi’ and ‘Against Jogi’, is the possible resting house that will probably come-up in the state. In fact the detractors of Jogi within Congress may well outnumber his enemies that are in the BJP. The birth of ‘Against Jogi’ group can be traced to 2000 when the state came into existence and Jogi was appointed the first CM. Claims of many other leaders like the Shukla brothers and that of numerous other aspirants were dismissed by Sonia Gandhi while appointing the much ‘junior’, Ajit Jogi. Seven years later the swords are still drawn and though each side claims the odd success in the battle, but the one final war is still to be fought.

Ends

Chhattisgarh political - June

Analysis

Ahead of state polls in Chhattisgarh, development issue seems to be emerging as a buzz. While Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh is riding to retain power on the same issue, three elected panchayat representatives have to go for failing to do “development”.

Chhattisgarh chief minister Dr Raman Singh took a ride state-wide to spell how his government defined and designed development of the state. The 19-day and six-phased Vikas Yatra (development road-show) concluded on June 29 with a big respite for the ruling party that the yatra went on right road.

“The Vikas Yatra was a great success and people responded to it endorsing the development works taken up by the BJP government (since it came to power in December 2003),” Dr Singh said after the campaign that ended in Jashpur on June 29. BJP President Rajnath Singh and state in-charge for party affairs Ravi Shankar Prasad were specially present at the concluding function.

The BJP leadership however have all the reasons to smile. For, the Vikas Yatra that only centred in and around the development issues evoked good response from the people at different corners of the state. The chief minister wholeheartedly sanctioned new development works that would cost crores of rupees.

The campaign started from Maoist-infested Dantewada district on May 23 and ended in Jashpur—the centre of inter state gangs active in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. But law and order was not an issue that was evident the way people clapped for Dr Singh when he addressed gatherings from the stages and roof-top of his chariot (rath).

According to political observers, the BJP leadership is well aware which cards to play in the ensuing assembly elections, due for October-November. Since the issue of development is the biggest card to deal with the anti-incumbency, the saffron strategists know very well that it will hit the right target to counter the opposition party, Congress, which is yet to work out a plan to propel its cadre to election mode.

The faction-ridden main opposition party Congress is struggling to set its home in order before attacking the ruling party. The simmering differences between different camps in the party spilled out in open on June 27 when party activists clashed for an ugly show in Korba in front of senior party leaders who have been entrusted to take the challenges of BJP and ensure victory of the Congress that was rooted out of power in December 2003.

The Congress leaders are confused to tackle the anti-incumbency factors while the BJP has scored over to spell out its development agenda and have gone before the people through the Vikas Yatra well ahead of the onset of election campaign to inform the electorate about its achievements and archives. For the Congress leaders, it would not be an easy task to grill the government on the issue of development.

Had the Congress succeeded in launching a campaign before the BJP’s Yatra, things would have changed as people could not have been convinced with the development formula of Raman Singh. During the regime of previous Congress government headed by Ajit Jogi, the state had no doubt seen a new horizon of development. but the failure of Congress party to encash the issue resulted in its ouster from the power.

The BJP leadership would not commit the same mistake. And the Vikas Yatra strategy stands testimony to it. The party is also planning to take Vijay Yatra (victory campaign) before the electioneering starts on the same issue to consolidate its position before the electorate. The saffron brigade knows the importance of development. And it was in its tenure that Chhattisgarh created history by voting out three panchayat presidents for failing to take up development work.

People of Gunderdehi, Rajpur and Nawagarh Nagar Panchayats on June 17 created history by toppling the President of their respective civic body by casting vote against them by exercising the right bestowed under the state Nagar Palika Act to recall elected representatives.

Under Section 47 (recall of the president) of Chhattisgarh Nagar Palika Adhiniyam 1961, election can be sought to recall the elected representatives if three-fourth of the total number of corporators in the municipal bodies give in writing to the collector that the president has lost the confidence of the body and hence election be held to recall.

Though people’s power ousted the three elected representatives, progress (development) and politics were the main driving force that led to the historic battle of ballots in the three sleepy towns of Durg and Sarguja districts. The corporators blamed the presidents for obstructing the development works and affecting the progress of the panchayat area while moving proposals to collectors.

Chhattisgarh political analysis May

With the final count-down for the ensuing Assembly elections starts in Chhattisgarh, Congressmen in the state rally behind the unity mantra to take on the rallies of Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh.

May 23 will have a great significance when the new government will assume office later in the month of December this year. For, it was on this day the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) launched a Gujarat-model of Yatra to retain power while opposition Congress went for a major overhaul in the party model to prepare for the coming polls.

Dr Singh launched his Vikas Yatra (road show) to propel the party workers in election mode from the headquarters of worst-Maoist hit Dantewada district. Leader of Opposition and BJP’s Prime Minister candidate L K Advani along with state polls in-charge Ravishankar Prasad were specially present to flag off the Yatra

During his six-phased Yatra, Dr Singh is scheduled to address as many as 1,200 public meetings and rallies in the 90 assembly constituencies of the state. “I want to directly interact with the people. And it is not possible by flying in a chopper,” Dr Singh said while explaining about the motive of his road show.

But the road show of the chief minister is guided more by the Gujarat formula than the local one. The Vikas Rath (Chariot) is reported to be the same in which Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi covered the length and breadth of his state before the elections that rode him back to power. The Rath has been redesigned according to the taste of Dr Singh and the state. But the strategy and the mechanism of Gujarat model remain the same.

While the “Sarthi (driver)” of Modi’s Rath is driving Dr Singh’s chariot, the motor mechanics to take care of technical snags have also come from Gujarat. The message is clear—the driver is guiding the road as he did in Gujarat while the mechanics are here to rectify the technical snags if coming in its way to stop Raman Singh for taking his party to retain power in the state.

The Gujarat model is certainly in action and the master-strategists of the ruling party are selling the development theory as it worked in Gujarat to convince people that Chhattisgarh has seen a new phase of development after the BJP government assumed office in December 2003.

The only difference between Chhattisgarh and Gujarat is that, Dr Singh avoids taking a drive in the pockets that reel under one of the biggest problems the state is facing from the Maoists. Though Dr Singh started his Yatra from Dantewada, he missed to attend a single rally--contrary to the claim that he will hold meetings in each assembly constituency—in worst Maoist-hit Konta and Bijapur Assembly segments in Bastar.

Dr Singh took the roads that did not pass from the territories that red army claims to be theirs and under its influence. While he successfully completed his Yatra in Maoist-hotbed of Bastar region, the Chief Minister’s convoy passed through the National Highway or main roads instead of going to the interior areas where he could get the exact picture of his Vikas Mantra.

“Since there is no Vikas (development) in the Maoist-hit areas, the Vikas Yatra of the chief minister missed to roll in the interior areas,” a senior leader of the ruling party quipped. The BJP strategists are confident that it will not have much impact as only five to six seats can be categorised as under the influence of the rebels. But the BJP leaders failed to count the rebels had their presence in the tribals pockets and in the House of 90, the 29 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (ST) holds the key to power.

The opposition party however committed another mistake by failing to acknowledge the importance of 29 tribal seats in the state while appointing a politically low-profiled Dhanendra Sahu as the new President of the Chhattisgarh Pradesh Congress Committee. “A tribal party chief in the state could have been a better bet,” said a senior Congress leader from the state.

The move of giving big onus to Dhanendra, a sitting Congress legislator, is to rig the Sahu votes that also play important role in changing the political equation of electoral politics in the state. In the move to sway the other backward class, Charandas Mahant has been retained as working President of the PCC—a demotion of post as he earlier held the post of state party chief.

Another Congress legislator and a Brahmin face of the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Satyanarayan Sharma has also been appointed as working president of the party. Sharma in fact has a capacity to propel the party workers to take on challenges, his election strategies in by-elections in the state has yielded the desired results for the party.

The Congressmen in the state have rallied behind the unity mantra in the new party organisational set up. A massive welcome rally in the state capital on May 29 with senior leaders of all factions on board the Ekta Rath demonstrating unity has charged the party workers. But the unity under a single leadership and now a series of leaders could help the party in better way.

Now with Karnataka going away from the Congress, it has become clear that the failure of party to project chief minister’s candidate has given advantage to the opponent. A high time, Congress should think of a one in 

Chhattisgarh and other states that go to the polls later in the year.

Chhattisgarh political analysis- March 2008

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Chhattisgarh is confident of retaining power but the party high command doesn’t seem to share the same enthusiasm.

The appointment of senior BJP leader and master strategist Ravishankar Prasad as the in-charge of election affairs in the poll-bound Chhattisgarh is reported to be an overt signal that the party high command is hesitating to buy the assurance of the state leaders that all roads are leading to the BJP retaining the power in the state.

Chhattisgarh is scheduled to go to the state polls in November-December. The biggest challenge for the saffron brigade is to win the confidence of the voters to continue with the second spell in power in the tribal-dominated state. The state BJP leadership is expressing confidence of winning the electoral battle in the state for two reasons.

First, the development works that it has initiated in the state alongwith the government sponsored scheme of selling a kilogram of rice for just Rs 3 to over 3.4 million families living below poverty line has resulted in a high-increase in the vote bank.

Secondly, the BJP is hoping that the fractured opposition in the state due to the infighting in Congress following severe differences in its ranks and files will help BJP in consolidating in areas which traditionally have been Congress bastion.

Prasad’s taking over the command to propel and prepare the party cadre to the ensuing elections is seen as a major political development. The state already has a national general-secretary, Dharmendra Pradhan, as an in-charge of party affairs in the state. By bestowing onus to senior leader like Prasad, the BJP high command has send a clear signal that the election in Chhattisgarh is not a cake walk as the local leaders have been projecting.

The leaders in Chhattisgarh have reasons to play the development down. “The party high command has appointment in-charge in all the states that will go to the polls,” explained a senior BJP leader. But the leader failed to address why heavy-weight leader like Prasad has been given the responsibility of one state when Venkaiah Naidu is doing the same job for two states—Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, which comparatively are bigger states than Chattisgarh.

According to party insiders, the party is of the opinion that elections in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka has to be handled with more importance. That could be the reason why Prasad has been given the responsibility of Chhattisgarh state so that he could fully concentrate in one state while assigning Arun Jaitley to Karnataka.

Prasad landed in the state on his 3 day maiden visit on March 27. During his stay, he tried talking to different groups and get the pulse of the general feeling in the party circle. In the absence of Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh, he chaired the meeting of core group and interacted with the senior members. His one-to-one meeting with ministers and legislators provided him more information was seen as an effort to get the exact picture of the government and party organization.

Although the Bihar political stalwart gave clean chit to the Chief Minister and reiterated his party President Rajnath Singh’s stand that the state will go to the polls under Dr Raman Singh’s leadership, Prasad knows that much is needed to done if the party has to emerge victorious.

Prasad will also have to work hard to reduce the rift that has been created between the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cadre and the government. RSS alleges that its suggestion are not being heeded by the state government.

Amidst resentment against the government and organization at the ground level, ticket distribution will be another daunting task for the party’s election in-charge for the state. Prasad has already hinted that getting a ticket to contest the polls on BJP ticket will not be as easy as he will scan each leader including the sitting legislators before the list is finalized.

Prasad has already indicated his stand on the matter to all the leaders waiting in line to enter the Chhattisgarh Vidhan Sabha. A former Congress leader, who crossed over to the BJP and enjoys a good support among the Oriya voters, came with a big crowd to meet Prasad at the state guesthouse. As his supporters raised slogan, Prasad responded: “Shouting slogans will not ensure party ticket. One has to do good work”.

Political diary- Chhattisgarh ,Bihar and Madhya Pradesh

Chhattisgarh:

Chhattisgarh will be one of the most affected states due to delimitation of constituencies for Lok Sabha and Assembly seats. Jagdalpur in Bastar, Ambikapur, Surajpur, Premnagar and Paal would be changed into general seats from SC/ST at present. Kanker Lok Sabha seat will become a general seat from ST reserved at present and Janjgir-Korba, presently a general seat will now become a SCC reserved Lok Sabha seat. Ms Karuna Shukla, niece of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and president of All India women's wing of the BJP represents the constituency.

The heavy weights likely to be affected include former minister, Satyanarayan Sharma, whose traditional Mandir Harshoud seat will cease to exist and Ms Renuka Singh, another former minister, whose Prem Nagar seat is being converted into a general seat.

Ms Singh has challenged the recommendations of the Delimitation commission in Supreme Court and opposed the decision of the Cabinet to reduce ST reserved seats for Chhattisgarh Assembly from 34 to 29 and ST reserved seats in Lok Sabha from the state from four to three.

The former chief minister, Ajit Jogi, who represents a general seat-Mahasamund in the Lok Sabha has also pleaded like Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland, Chhattisgarh should also be exempted from delimitation of constituencies in the coming elections. The elections for the new assembly are due in November this year.

The Chief Minister Raman Singh is hoping that his ambitious 'Rs 3 per kg rice and Rs 10 per litre Kerosene for BPL families' scheme will help the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in wooing the rural voters where 42 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line.

The state BJP leadership recently had reasons celebrate as the party grabbed victory in the recent assembly by-poll in the Naxal stronghold of Keshkal (Bastar).

The saffron party has now decided to put enhanced efforts on the impoverished regions of the state where corruption and delays stops people from getting food grains and kerosene from the Public Distribution System (PDS) as political pundits are of the view that that if the welfare schemes are sincerely implemented the BJP would be able to enjoys its success in the forthcoming assembly election.

Raman Singh has issued instructions to the government officials asking them to maintain strict surveillance to prevent any malfunctioning and corruption in the rice distribution scheme or face stern actions.

Bihar:

The delimitation of constituencies would affect adversely several leaders, including state RJD president, Abdul Bari Sidiuqqui, health minister, Chandra Mohan Rai (Ram Nagar) and sports minister, Janardan Singh Segriwal (Jalalpur), whose constituencies will cease to exist in the coming assembly elections.

Sadhu Yadav, brother-in-law of the Railway Minister, Lalu Prasad Yadav ,who was elected from Gopalganj (general) seat to the Lok Sabha will have to search new constituency as Gopalganj has now become a SC reserved seat ,Ramchandra Paswan, LJP MP and brother of Ram Vilas Paswan and Surajbhan, another MP of LJP will also have to look for new seats as their current seats , Rosera and Balia have been scrapped.

In the 243 state assembly, now, there would be 37 SC and two ST seats and six out of 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar would be reserved for SCs

Patna Saheb and Pataliputra will have two new Lok sabha constituencies with changes in the areas of Patna and Barh constituencies. In Patna, there will be one new assembly seat from Kumhrar, which would be carved out from the existing Patna South, Masaurhi and Phulwari constituencies.

Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) has decided to don the political cap with the party now working to make its presence felt between the OBCs and the Minorities. MJ Akbar, who once successfully contested for the MP seat from Kishanganj (Bihar) is all set for a comeback, though this time he will be going to the Upper house courtesy JD (U).

Madhya Pradesh:

If the Lok Sabha elections are held immediately in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress would be gainer .The past trends of the by-elections also indicate, the BJP would be loser, as in all the by-elections, the BJP lost the seats won by it in the last elections. The BJP lost the Khargone Lok Sabha seat to the Congress in November. In the summer, the party could not retain the seat it had won in 2004 elections in Shivpuri.

The recent 60000 crores debt relief relief given to the Kisans by the finance minister, P Chidambaram, will definitely help gain the support of the cotton growers of Khargone-Khanwda and soyabean growers of Malwa region and also in central Madhya Pradesh. Many farmers had committed suicide in these regions due to heavy loans.

The former chief minister, Ms Uma Bharti, who would be fielding her candidates against the BJP, would also help the Congress in a triangular contest.

Politically stating Congress is on a revival mode after Suresh Pachori was made the state PCC chief recently. The old PCC had virtually become defunct under Subhash Yadav and inspite of many opportunities presented by the BJP, the PCC was no abe to successfully utilize them. Now the workers are hoping for a change in fortune under Pachori as he is more taller than Yadav and commands more respect among the senior leaders like Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scinda and that would help him to silent the intra-party fighting that has been brewing for quite a while now.

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) was hoping on using the Ram Sethu issue for electoral gains in Madhya Pradesh but it got a rude shock as the Ramsetu issue backfired as was clear from its performance in the Karnataka local body elections where the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) emerged as the winner.

BJP and Congress both have shifted their spotlight to the sizeable number of tribal votebank in Madhya Pradesh. This was evident after LK Advani chose Jabalpur to launch his 'sankalp yatra' while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a visit to the remote tribal belt of Jhabua.

Tribals dominate both Jhabua and Jabalpur regions. They play a decisive role in 91 of the state's 230 assembly constituencies. Of these, 41 are reserved for the community.

Tribals would play an even more significant role if the delimitation of constituencies takes place before the polls. Under the new system, the number of tribal seats would go up.

The significant of the tribal vote was demonstrated in the 2003 assembly polls at Nimar, Malwa, Mahakaushal and Vindhya regions. The BJP swung 15 percent of the tribal votes away from the Congress and won three-fourths of the tribal seats.

Though recent trends suggest that the Tribals appear to have distanced themselves from BJP as was evident in Khargone Lok Sabha and Sanver and Lanjhi assembly by-polls which the BJP lost.

Another important part in the whole picture is to be played by Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP), which has substantial strength in the tribal areas of the Mahakoshal region.

Both the BJP and the Congress are wary of GGP and if the Gonds in the Mahakoshal region, where 60 percent of the voters are tribals, decide to go with GGP, the electoral prospects of the two mainstream parties will surely suffer.

Similarly Mayawati’s BSP which recently organized a show of strength in Bhopal, will also give sleepless night to both BJP and Congress strategist as BSPs policy of wooing the Brahmin vote bank is sure to change the political equations in the state.