Dasyu Samrat Malkhan

Thick curled moustache, sporting a Ray ban aviator sun-glasses and a red vermilion mark on his forehead, Daku Malkhan Singh, 74, a bandit of the Chambal region is now busy in seeking votes for BJP state president Narendra Singh Tomar, who is contesting from the Gwalior seat.

According to locals, after kidnapping the victim, Malkhan used to send the demand for the “Firauti” (ransom) on a letter head that had his name printed on the top and the ransom amount written below. He is one of the few dacoits on whom a book- “Malkhan- the story of a bandit King”, has been written.

Malkhan though says that he was never a dacoit, but a “Baagi” (Rebel). “We never harassed anyone who was weak or poor, we targeted those who used to steal from the poor”, recalls Malkhan, who spent close to 10 years in the prison.

He claims that the times might have changed but still the system of stealing from the poor is going on. “That is why I am campaigning in support for the BJP. Even after so many years of the country’s Independence, nothing has changed and things will not change until the BJP comes to power at the Centre”, he says.

Malkhan, who had surrendered before the then Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Arjun Singh, said that all the promises that were made to him by Singh were never fulfilled.  “Before we surrendered with our arms, the state government made a commitment that our case will be leniently dealt with. However as soon as the surrender took place, all the promises were forgotten. The Congress did not keep its promise”, alleged Malkhan, who had crowned himself as “Dasyu Samrat” (dacoit king), when he was at his prime in the 70s and the late 80s.

When he surrendered on 17 June 1982 in Bhind at the age of 42, he was facing arrest in atleast 105 cases of murder, kidnapping and dacoity.

One of the conditions that Malkhan had put for his surrender was that he and his gang members should not be handcuffed while being taken to the court but after the initial days of surrendering, the Police reneged on its promise. Another condition was that all the cases against the dacoits would be transferred from Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan to Gwalior.

However, Malkhan forgets to mention that soon after his surrender took place, Arjun Singh was sent to Punjab and he was replaced with the present Congress party treasurer Moti Lal Vora, who had other pressing issues to cater to rather than think about the commitment made to the dacoits.

Saffron surge in Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh which sends 29 MPs to the parliament and is traditionally known for its bipolar politics is experiencing a changed sceanrio as lesser parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) have started making their presence felt in the central state.

In the previous 2004 general election, the BJP riding on a popular wave and a strong anti-Congress feeling won 25 of Madhya Pradesh's 29 seats with the rest going to Congress. Prominent winners of Congress included Kamalnath and JyotirAditya Scindia.

This time too, experts feel that BJP will romp home quite comfortably. This so called positive feeling for BJP is not being attributed to any national issues like internal security or job opportunities but local issues on which BJP is on a strong platform.

The state government under Shivraj Singh Chauhan has grown stronger with each passing day. His simple yet effective way of governing and his emphasis on development has made sure that the BJP cadre has enough related ammunitions to deal with any congress tirade.

The different state of affairs which the state saw under Digvijay Singh and the scenario under the present CM is quite stark.

In the previous general election the state was virtually nil when it came to good roads and regular electricity supply. But that has changed. Similarly the CM who himself comes from a rural background has made amply sure that the rural segment is not ignored due to which the state has witnessed an all-round development.

The party faced many a discontent during the previous assembly election but most of them were settled amicably as every party leader knows that in the present time BJP is going through a golden period in the state and it would be suicidal to go against the party wish, especially against the CM.

The BJP is functioning so well in the state that former Union minister Sushma Swaraj - the BJP's Election in charge for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand - is in the fray from this Vidisha constituency. Call it the real ‘feel good’ factor.

Out of the 29 seats there are more than at least half a dozen seat where the contested is expected to be one sided. Most of them in favor of BJP. Congress though can safely bet their money only on Kamalnath and Scindia.

The only million dollar question that one can speculate on is whether the BJP will be bale to improve on its previous tally of 25 seats or not. Politically it is very difficult, maybe next to impossible. In the previous election the mass came out to vote for two reasons; First to remove Congress and secondly to install BJP.

This time the first factor is irrelevant.

Secondly the region that is attached to UP is an area where SP and BSP do exercise some influence. Now it remains to be seen how much of that influence will be transformed into votes.

The lesser parties may not appear as a very big issue , but still they have kept both BJP and Congress busy.

MP Digest January

As with other states, MadhyaPradesh too has started to feel the effects of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections as both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress have started to galvanize their supporters to visit the electorates and woo them.

The results of the recently concluded state assembly elections have come as a booster for the ruling BJP, as a result of which many of the central leaders of the party who were searching for a safe seat have now turned their attention towards Madhya Pradesh.

Prominent leaders including Sushma Swaraj and Smriti Irani have been vying for a seat from Madhya Pradesh. The party high command in New Delhi is also facing lots of resistance against name of some sitting MPs due to inner discontent. Those leaders who created hurdles for their own party members during the assembly election are now themselves facing the heat now.

MP from Indore Sumitra Mahajan is facing inner revolt from one of her party colleague and Minister Kailash Vijawargiya who commands a strong hold in Indore. During the recent assembly election, Mahajan and Vijaywargiya were engaged in bitter feud over whose supporter will get the tickets.

In between all the political games, Shivraj Singh Chauhan has not lost his focus and is working on selling his image of a “Development” intensive leader. He has roped in management gurus to teach good governance to ministers and bureaucrats.

Chauhan has also decided to train his cabinet colleagues and officers in good governance. He may be taking a leaf out of Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar’s book, who too had invited management experts to teach the ministers and officers.

Chauhan held a three-days training camp for his ministers at the tourist spot, Panchmarhi, where management experts taught them lessons in good governance. He has decided to arrange similar training camps for the Babus next month.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan, has also engaged himself in mobilizing support of the unorganized sector in the state. He is regularly inviting members of these sectors at his CM bungalow on Shyama Hills and telling them about the different welfare schemes for them.

Last week, he called over 2500 rickshaw pullers and vegetable vendors of the streets to his house on lunch and asked them to take advantage of the different schemes of the state government . He announced Rs 800 subsidy for purchasing their own rickshaw and trolleys. Chauhan showed his skill by pulling rickshaws outside the CM house too.

Unlike his predecessors, Babulal Gaur or Ms Uma Bharti,Chauhan is keeping himself projected as good administrator and also a smart politicians, which he proved by getting the BJP re-elected for the second term in the December assembly elections.

He got the vice-chancellor of Bhopal's Barkatullah university, Bhupal Singh, a retired IAS sacked by the chancellor as the VC was facing several charges of corruption. Ravindra Jain,a professor succeeded him.

Chauhan who had earned a bad name during the infancy stage of his chief minister-ship two years back because of murder of a professor of Ujjan by the Vidhyarthi Parishad activists, has repeatedly sent out a message that he wants to keep the campus clean.

Some BJP leaders of the state who were trying to bring back former Union minister Prahlad Patel back into the party fold so as to use his stature in the Mahakaushal region of the state where asked to keep low as after many leaders of the party from the Mahakaushal region revolted. Patel had left BJP when Uma Bharti launched her own party. Later he was removed by Uma Bharti for not following her directions.

Congress on the other hand as is trying to reach out to the minorities by inducting former parliamentarian Aslam Sher Khan in the state Congress body as Vice President. Besides Aslam, several other local Muslim leaders have also been inducted in the state body. Post assembly elections postmortem revealed that the minority class had deserted Congress and this has led to a stronger thrust towards this section.

Madhya Pradesh analysis-December

The result of the recent assembly elections came out with no real surprise as the predictions of BJP coming back to power in the central state of Madhya Pradesh came true.

This time the BJP won 143 out of the total 230 assembly seats. In the previous election the saffron party had bagged 171 seats. Political Pundits have attributed this win to Shivraj singh Chauhan and his development oriented approach which was more than sufficient to cover the corruption charges that was synonymous with his previous government.

With the BJP top brass giving Chauhan complete charge of the state, he followed the Gujarat model whereby he denied tickets to many sitting MLAs and brought new faces.

It is also important to note that the difference between many of the winning candidates and those who lost was not much and it is quite true that on some another day BJP would have struggled to gain majority.

With the state witnessing a high polling percentage of more than 68%, both Congress and the BJP experienced contrasting emotions before the final results were announced as the general perception that a high polling percentage indicates resentment of the common mass against the incumbent government started doing the round.

But in the end, it was the Congress supporters who were left disappointed as internal squabbling and dissent left the party short of the number of seats that it was expecting.

The party under the state leadership of Suresh Pachori won 71 seats, up from the 38 seats which it won in the previous election. And it is no secret that if the selection of candidates was managed in a better way, the Congress could have definitely won more seats.

The bipolar political nature of the state was further strengthened amidst speculations of the lesser parties playing a bigger role as none of these parties could make a dent. The BSP came third winning 7 seats while Uma Bharti led BJS begged a poor 5 seats with the former CM herself losing her seat.

The disappointing performance of SP led to its state party chief being removed by SP supremo Mulayam Singh yadav. Madhya Pradesh state president Narayan Tripathi was removed and a new state president from Uttar Pradesh, Deep Narayan Yadav was appointed. Yadav is an MLA from Moth in Jhansi district of Uttar Pradesh.

State Congress party president Suresh Pachouri, was the man who was the most disappointed of all the Congress state leaders as of the 50 plus candidates that he had recommended only 8 of them could secure win.

On the other hand, Kamalnath emerged as the tallest of all, as 22 of his supporters made it to the Assembly. Former chief minister Digvijay Singh came second with 17 MLAs and Jyotiraditya was third with 13 MLAs.

Post the casting of votes and before the actual results came in, Congress was more ecstatic than the BJP as the high polling percentage gave Congress a reason to hope that it would win more than 90 seats which was what some experts had predicted.

Looking back to this election, BJP will breath a sigh of relief as the majority that it has secured is not that comforting as it appears. On the other hand Congress would curse their luck and their leaders as a better poll management and coordination among the senior leaders would have given BJP a run for their money.

A hung assembly in offering?

The fortunes of many a leaders from the major various parties including 1369 independents who are contesting for the 230 state assembly seats is now decided and, Who will win and who will not will be clear on the 8^th of December when the counting of ballot paper begins.The elections were marred by violence as a former minister and sitting BJP legislator,Sunil Nayak,was gunned down outside a polling booth allegedly by brother of his Congress rival.

The ruling BJP and the opposition Congress had different aspirations before going to the poll, but all that seems to have changed now. The BJP which was earlier hoping to win comfortably is now nervous that whether it will be able to reach the magical mark of 116 or not. For the Congress it is the opposite as political pundits who earlier gave it no chance to form the government are now divided and are of the view that Congress may just sneak in.

According to surveys conducted by various bodies post-polling, Congress will perform better than expected and will be able to win in more than 90 constituencies. The Congress leaders drawing heart from the above assessment are working on formulas and alliances which they might have to use in case they fall just short of the majority.

The lesser parties have done too much damage for the BJP. All predictions point out that the gap between the number of seat won by the Congress and the BJP will be too less for any of them to draw comfort.

Candidates of Uma Bharti’s BJS may well emerge in more than 10 seats. Similarly BSP is also expected to win more than 5 seats. If we count the Gondwana Gantantra party the expected loss of seat to non BJP and non Congress may well be in the region of 35- 45 assembly seats.

In some areas the vote share of the BJP candidates in particular has been eaten away by BJS candidates and this may well have a large bearing on the final picture.

With no party gaining majority one cannot rule out a scenario where the state witness a hung assembly or not will be decided by the independents and the lesser parties.

Independents have played crucial role in government formation in Madhya Pradesh once before, in 1969, when the Independent legislators helped Govind Narain Singh to form a government. The outgoing assembly has only two independent legislators, though it should not be forgotten that they still managed to garner 7.7 per cent of the total votes polled.

The BJP might seek the help of the estranged Uma Bharti and Mayawati in case it needs support. For Congress it will be Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP, and the independents if the need arises to look for partners.

The last ditch, whirlwind campaigning taken-up by Pachori is sure to help his party’s and his own cause. For he alongwith Union minister Kamalnath is a front runner for the post of chief minister. Similarly the general perception of the BJP leaders among the voters, specially the working class, is that of being corrupt which political pundits say has dented the party’s image.

Poll bugle sounded in Madhya Pradesh

Wheels and fortunes leading to Shaymla hills, which house the coveted residence of Madhya Pradesh CM, have started to roll in the state of Madhya Pradesh.

With the election commission announcing notification for holding polling in 230 constituencies in a single phase on November 27 the political atmosphere in the state has acquired the traditional vibrancy.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan is counting on good governance and development across the state, coupled with the global financial crisis, price rise and spurt in terrorist activities to help him keep Congress out of the state.

It has been secretly acknowledged even by the Congress leaders that Madhya Pradesh will be a difficult nut to crack. In case this happens, the one who would suffer the most will be former union minister and current PCC chief Suresh Pachori, as this might well spell doom for his political career.

The Congress could have reaped political mileage if only it would have properly highlighted the numerous corruption cases that have cropped up against many BJP leaders in the state.

At present Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and five other ministers of his cabinet are facing corruption charges. The CM is facing a case under Section 420 of the IPC for favoring a business house.

The former Health minister Ajay Bishnoi had to quit after Income Tax raids were conducted at his brothers’ residence and following his involvement in health scam.

The CAG report has pressed several corruption charges against the PWD and IT minister Kailash Vijayvargiya. Similarly, Revenue minister Kamal Patel has been charged with disproportionate wealth. A PIL raising these issues are pending in the Jabalpur High Court.

Irrigation minister Anup Mishra - he is the nephew of former PM Atal Vihari Vajpayee - used his powers to rent helicopter for personal use while the rent was paid from the state exchequer. The PHE minister Chaudhary Chandrabhan Singh is also under scanner for misusing his position and acquiring properties in his constituency. Chhindwara. Senior leader and Agriculture and Cooperatives minister Gopal Bhargava shot into limelight when he equated them with 'beggars'.

Similarly the Congress has still not been able to decide whether to politicize the arrest of Pragya Singh Thakur alias Sadhvi Purna Chetnanand Giri who was arrested for allegedly being a part of the Malegaon bomb blast.

A section of leaders feel that already the stigma of being soft on terror is making it difficult for leaders to answer their voters and they feel that raising Pragya’s issues may back fire and alienate the already discontent majority voters.

BJP has more or less taken care of countering the anti-incumbency wave by following the Gujarat model and neutralizing the damage by denying tickets to candidates whose report cards as sitting MLAs in the past five years were not found upto the mark.

As many as 78 sitting MLAs have been given tickets, while 28 have been denied keeping in view the anti-incumbency factor. Sources said that few more sitting MLAs might be dropped in the second list.

The experiment has worked well for the BJP in Gujarat, where as many as 49 of the 127 sitting MLAs were denied ticket.

The only issue on which both the Congress and BJP seem to agree is that this time the BJP will not be able win as substantially as it had in 2003, when it bagged 173 of the total 230 seats. The 170 plus seat in 2003 had more to do with two waves which were working simultaneously- the ‘Uma Bharti wave’ and the huge discontent against Digvijay Singh for his 10 years of not so good governance.

The ‘lesser’ parties like Uma Bharti’s BJS, the BSP , the GGP and the SP will also make sure that BJPs tally decreases. Though BJS doesn’t have a very past good record , but this time Uma Bharti has given her everything and this may result in her getting a pie from the cake. Similarly GGP may well increase its tally in the state with the party allotting tickets to Brahmin candidates in region of Rewa.

In case of a hung assembly, which for some doesn’t appear to be a too distinct possibility,these parties may well decide who sits in the opposition.

All in all it’s an election that holds better opportunity for speculators and expert commentators with room for many ‘ifs’ and more ‘buts’.

Madhya Pradesh analysis

Except in Madhya Pradesh where the Congress is still to decide on the candidate’s name for CM it can be safely said that in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the two other states that go to poll, a consensus on the names of Ashok Gehlot and Ajit Jogi has been arrived upon.

In Madhya Pradesh, unlike in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, there are too many names that are doing the rounds for the chair of CM and it can be termed a wise decision by the Congress high command to not to declare any name as that may have fuelled the already simmering inner discontent in the state Congress.

Sources within the party say that Union Commerce minister Kamalnath and Jyotiraditya Scindia have emerged as the chief contender for the chair. They also cite the ‘Pratibha Patil’ incident and say they will not be too surprised if someone else emerges from the oblivion in case the Congress wins.

Experts feel that the BJP will be successful in hoisting the saffron flag in the Central state albeit with a lower margin. Shivraj Singh Chauhan has focused more on developing the rural areas as compared to the urban regions and it with be the electorates from these regions that will make sure that Chauhan emerges winner.

This was visible when in one of the biggest political mass gatherings in history of MP thousands of BJP workers and supporters gathered in Bhopal for the launching of the campaigning for assembly polls.

The huge number made both the PM aspirant Lal Krishna Advani and party president Rajnath Singh overjoyed and they will be hoping to get a sizable number of seats from Madhya Pradesh in the Lok Sabha polls which are due next year.

Those who follow Madhya Pradesh closely will say that Chauhan has acted very prudently in run-up to the elections. During the previous government most of the development related works, inaugurations, announcement etc were done when the polls were in sight but this time Chauhan has focused on development issues all through out his tenure which will be more politically more effective than the huge poll bonanzas and the mass stone laying functions that the electorate are accustomed to witness in wake of the elections.

The almost written off Uma Bharti sprang a surprise when she successfully hoisted a massive public rally in the heart of the capital which was more than enough to cause lose of sleep for both the BJP and Congress. This has diminished the hopes of Congress forming the next government more because if Uma manages to win a good number of seat she will be more comfortable in forming an alliance with the BJP rather than with the Congress.

Enormous pressure forced the Congress to announce the first list of candidates who will be contesting in the elections. All the 39 sitting MLAs of the Party have been given the tickets. But the BJP is still to announce its list and if reports are to be believed, more than 40 of the sitting MLAs who have been rated as non-performers by the electorate in various surveys will be denied tickets.

But the problem in such case will be more with the BJP rather than with the ‘denied MLAs’, for the Uma Bharti’s BJS and the BSP who have nothing to lose will be more than ready to lure the dissidents.

Also in the previous elections many of the BJP MLAs won with a very slender margin that too because of the dissatisfaction on part of the electorate with Digvijay Singh coupled with the BJP wave which was strengthened by Uma Bharti. The same may not happen this time.

Internal dilemma abounds for the BJP. Through out his tenure Chauhan has done good work but the MLAs who are seen as the visible face of the party do not have an image that they would like to go out with among the voters.

Madhya Pradesh- August

When Uma Bharti quit BJP 30 months back and announced the formation of her own party (Bhartiya Janshakti), political pundits predicted that she would give BJP a run for their money in the Central state of Madhya Pradesh. After all it was she who was wholly responsible for BJPs sweeping win over Congress in the previous state elections where Digvijay singh led Congress was completely routed.

But now seasons have changed and so have the predictions. After successfully defeating Congress, Uma Bharti conveniently forgot that it was the BJP wave that had played an important role in her fight. Not only MP, but Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan were also won convincingly.

She was made to think by her inner coterie that it was she who had led the BJP into power and without her BJP will find hard to survive. Nearly 2 and half years later, it’s her party that is finding hard to breathe. The maverick leader is learning the never ending political lessons the hard way.

Her party is on the brink of collapse just three-months before the Assembly election in the State. And the proverbial rats are jumping off the sinking ship. Recently her one of the most trusted confidant and party general secretary Bhagwandas Sabnani came back to the Bharatiya Janata Party fold.

Sabnani’s revolt came as a bolt of blue for Uma who had still not recovered from the twin shock of desertion of the then party national president Raghunandan Sharma who deserted her after he was promised a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh with support of BJP. Before that party's national general secretary and former Union Minister Prahlad Patel too snapped his ties with Bhartiya Janshakti on issues of contesting the Gujarat state elections. And before that, it was Madan Lal Khurana, a former Bhartiya Janta Party Chief Minister who went back to BJP.

Those of few who are still in BJS are counting the days when the inevitable will happen and Uma too will crossover to BJP. Sources feel that the wait will be over by the time the dates for the state elections are announced.

Without Patel the party is under financial crisis and is heading for a major split. The Bhartiya Janashakti has witnessed mass scale desertions recently and paucity of funds and resources have ensured that the party workers will have to put no extra efforts to break the 30 months old ties when time calls.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan continues to enjoy the good luck that has been working for him from the day he took over as the CM. Chauhan who was the third CM after Uma Bharti and Babu Lal Gaur recently celebrated 1000 days in office.

Experts feel that with no major controversy, except the “Dumper deal” to court him, Chauhan has performed well in the run-up to the elections. The BSP ( Bijli – Sadak-Pani) which was the main issue in the previous election has been negated by the work carried out by his government. This has resulted in the opposition Congress futilely searching for an issue.

The various people friendly scheme that has been launched in the state like the Kanyadaan Yojana for marriage of poor girls, Ladli Laxmi Scheme for girl children and Annapurana Yojana for subsidized food grain, which has been quite a hit in the neighbouring Chhattisgarh too has ensued that Shivarj will have issues to share with the electorates once the electioneering begins.

Though some section feel that corruption has eaten away the political benefit that could have been gained as the ground level implementation has not been quite up to mark for the schemes to make their total impact. But with the CM putting his foot down before the code of conduct sets-in the desired result will soon trickle in.

Also the party on its part has asked its entire ministers to pay attention to the district that have been put under their charge and spend at least five days in week in these areas.

A high profile meeting of the top leaders of State Congress in Chinndwara on August 22 grabbed quite a few eyeballs in the state. Almost all of the senior leaders of the party including Kamalnath, Digvijay singh, Jamuna Devi, Jyotiaditya Scindia, Ajay Singh, V Narayan Swamy and Suresh Pachori were present at the meeting.

During the meeting Digvijay singh and Subhash Yadav caused a flutter among many feathers when they announced that they were in support of Kamal Nath being projected as the CM.

Later it was reported that the AICC has taken serious note of floating Nath’s candidature as future CM and summoned both Yadav and Singh. Union Minister of State Jyotiraditya Scindia too had strongly objected over the announcement. It is no secret that Scindia, Kamal Nath, state Congress President Suresh Pachauri and Ajay Singh, son of Union HRD minister Arjun Singh all are CM aspirants and they have started their efforts to see to it they get the coveted chair if the Congress wins power.

Diminishing returns of Congress

The political assessment about Congress’s future in the Hindi belt of Madhya Pradesh and Bihar appears bleak and weak .

In Madhya Pradesh, the state Congress in being headed by Suresh Pachouri, a leader who has never won an election, not even that of municipality. On top of that, Suhash Yadav, Jamuna Devi, Digvijay singh, Kamal Nath, Arjun singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia, all have their own nut to grind leaving Pachori with the difficult task of pleasing everyone and dislodging the firmly rooted BJP from the state. In short Pachouri has to manoeuver through a maze that has no end.

The tremors of intra-party factionalism has never allowed Pachouri to prepare for himself a firm ground, standing on which he can at least think of challenging Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

At the moment, most of the strings that are controlled by the Digvijays, the Kamalnaths and the Scindias are being pulled from Delhi, but once the monsoon of election sets in, all these clouds will make a beeline for Madhya Pradesh and then Pachouri will have his task cut out.

Relationship between Pachouri and KamalNath are not in the best of state and only time will tell how much damage will the Chindwara power house do to Pachori. Ajay Singh, son of Arjun Singh and Nakul Nath,son of Kamal Nath will add their own bit to the whole story as both of them will try to establish themselves in the political map of the state and the assembly elections will be the arena that will decide their rise or fall.

While commenting on the situation of Congress in Bihar one will strain his yes and yet find no leaders to talk or write of. The word ‘bleak’ will be an understatement to describe the situation, as the state congress is virtually defunct in this eastern state.

The fact that AICC secretary in charge KC Deo, who was the State Congress in-charge for one year, never thought of visiting Bihar even once speaks volumes about the importance the Congress leadership attaches to Bihar.

There are only three Congress MPs from Bihar in the parliament. Nikhil Kumar (former Delhi police commissioner and son of former chief minister,Satyendra Narayan Sinha), Meira Kumar (daughter of Babu Jagjivan Ram) and Shakeel Ahmed(son of former Bihar speaker,Shakoor Ahmad). The party also has merely nine MLAs in the state assembly, and no one will surprised if it’s representation in the state goes down even further in the future.

Recently, Bihar Pradesh Congress saw a new chief being appointed. Anil Sharma who has emerged through the corridors of student politics of Patna University recently replaced Sadanand Singh.

Sharma, like Pachouri has never won an election not was even an MLC, fits more comfortably in the role of a palmist. He is an expert palmist and astrologer and if one is to go by news coming from within the party, Sharma got the job after he was recommended by Vincent George, the ‘now-almost-forgotten’ secretary of Ms.Sonia Gandhi. George reportedly pushed Sharma’s candidature because he was pleased by the accuracy of the forecasts predicated by him while reading George’s palm.

Unlike in other states, in Bihar it is Lalu Yadav who decides the ticket distribution for the Congress party. The state Congress has paid a very heavy price to keep the alliance between the RJD and the UPA at the Centre functioning. Lalu while working in a systematic way has made sure that Congress is brought down to a point, from where it will take years if not decades to stand up again. And the one party that has gained from this has been Ram Vilas Pawan’s LJP. For years to come the electorate battle in the state will be fought between the troika of JD (U), the RJD and the LJP. Leaving both the main national parties, the BJP and the Congress to play the role of a mere substitute

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress is going to contest the elections on its own strength. In the past, it had made “strategic arrangements” with the Bahujan Samaj party and the Left giving them a couple of constituencies, but in Bihar, it is dependent on the RJD only. If it goes alone in Bihar, the party can become organizationally stronger. The party leaders had recently told the treasurer, Motilal Vora that the workers at the grass root level were “jobless” even during the election campaign as they were not required for campaign as most of the seats were given to the RJD in alliance. They feared the party may lose its ground in the villages, if this trend continued for long .The party may no win more seats, but it may be revived with the “involvement” of the workers in the villages.

In Chhattisgarh the prospects appear better for the Congress, as the tribal belt of Surguja and Bastar are not happy with their respective BJP MLAs. In the previous election, it was this belt which voted against the Congress and led BJP to power. The Salva Judum movement too will come into play as most of the tribals are disenchanted by it. This tribal belt will perhaps decide that who amongst the seekers will finally get the treasure.

The tickets for the forthcoming assembly elections is Chhattisgarh will be distributed through mainly two counters; one being manned by the former CM and MP Ajit jogi and the other that has the octogenarian Motilal Vohra at its helm. In the political equation that will possibly emerge in this state, many other leaders like Satyanarayan Sharma, Charan das Mahant, VC Shukla will also play small yet pivotal part to make the equation more ‘exciting’.

The intra-party factionalism and the honest image of Raman Singh will be the only thing that may stop Congress from capturing the required number of seats. While on one hand the Rs 3 kg rice scheme for the poor in Chhattisgarh may help Raman Singh to retain the tribals votes but on the other the below satisfactory performance of his colleagues among the tribals will make it difficult for Raman to consolidate on the advantage that he will get from the rice scheme.

Dilip Singh Judeo, who was a chief ministerial candidate in 2003 has been sidelined and is now busy with his re-conversion programmes.

The factionalism that has emerged in this state has led to the birth of two poles for the Congress workers to choose from. ‘With Jogi’ and ‘Against Jogi’, is the possible resting house that will probably come-up in the state. In fact the detractors of Jogi within Congress may well outnumber his enemies that are in the BJP. The birth of ‘Against Jogi’ group can be traced to 2000 when the state came into existence and Jogi was appointed the first CM. Claims of many other leaders like the Shukla brothers and that of numerous other aspirants were dismissed by Sonia Gandhi while appointing the much ‘junior’, Ajit Jogi. Seven years later the swords are still drawn and though each side claims the odd success in the battle, but the one final war is still to be fought.

Ends

Madhya Pradesh Analysis - July

As with the other state bodies of the country, buoyed with the UPA wining confidence motion in Lok Sabha, Madhya Pradesh Congress is also making efforts to boost up the party workers but its work is being hampered due to the lack of unity, as disputes between leaders refuses to disappear.

BJP gained power in the previous state elections by raking up the pitiable conditions of BSP (Bijli-Sadak Pani) in the state. According to commentators the situation in the state hasn’t improved much and continues to remain the same but the main opposition in state assembly, Congress has not been able to ‘market’ this among the mass.Anti-incumbency won’t be much a factor in the forthcoming state elections scheduled for November, hence the Congress will need to work out some other formula if it wants to dislodge BJP.

Corruption which has recently beset the state BJP was an issue that could have been developed and used as a tool by the opposition but that too was not properly utilized. According to Party functionaries even though the state has big stature leaders, yet most of them are more active in the Center and hence the state organization is not able to utilize their experience and tact. Here too the party is facing a catch-22 situation as a section of the workers are wishing for bringing the Kamal Naths and the Digvijay Singhs into the state for a prolonged inning but another section of the party fear that too many cooks will spoil the broth and will result in more intra-party disputes.

As widely reported in the local media the intraparty dispute was clearly visible in two meetings that were held in two different places. One at the state PPC office in Bhopal, Indira Gandhi Bhawan and the other at the residence of a Union Minister Kamal Nath in Delhi.

Though it was said that the meeting at Kamal Nath’s place was to deliberate the future strategy for the state but those present in the meetings say that the subject of the meeting was an individual rather than the organization.

Among others who were excluded from the meet at Delhi included AICC General Secretary Digvijay Singh, Union Minister Arjun Singh and senior leader Satyavrat Chaturvedi.

Two days later, Bhopal became the hotspot as supporters of Digvijay and Arjun Singh met to work out the future strategy. The most notable of the absentee was Madhya Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) chief Suresh Pachauri.

As such instances of factionalism continue to come out, the view that Congress will lose hands down will grow strong.

The long standing demand of the state Congress leaders for arranging a visit of Gandhi scion to the central state was finally fulfilled as the Congress general secretary attended a special function in Bhopal and interacted with children in a school owned and promoted by a well known media group.

Rahul Gandhi also took stock of the political situation in the state through a brainstorming exercise which involved State Congress president, Suresh Pachouri and chairman of the State Congress Campaign Committee Ajay Singh.

Detractors of the state PCC chief Suresh Pachori, were left disappointed as the former union minister was praised by Rahul Gandhi for his efforts to bring the state organization into shape.

The state assembly witnessed unruly scenes as the opposition’s demand of setting up a judicial enquiry into the communal violence that was witnessed in Indore went unheeded.Setting a record of sorts no question hour could be transacted during the entire monsoon session, while more than a dozen official bills, including the supplementary budget, were passed without debate.

The state also witnessed two bandhs in the month of July; one in Indore and the other in Chindwara. Bandh was imposed in Indore after a communal clash between the supporters of the bandh led by the Hindutva group like RSS and VHP clashed with a section of the minority group. The bandh was called by these organizations to protest the decision of the Jammu and Kashmir government to revoke the decision to transfer land to Amarnath Shrine trust board.

Chindwara which is the parliamentary constituency of union commerce minister Kamal Nath, witnessed a bandh that was called by the Gondwana Gantranta party (GGP) to protest against protesting against the death of a boy at a gurukul (school) run by the asram of spiritual guru Asaram Bapu. This is the second death that has been reported in the asram in two days.

Madhya Pradesh political- June

Analysis

Assembly elections in the state are five months’ away, but all the major political parties including the BJP, the Congress, the BSP, Uma Bharti led BJS and the NCP have already initiated their efforts to chalk out strategy for the polls.

Union Civil Aviation Minister and Nationalist Congress Party's Madhya Pradesh in-charge Praful Patel who was in the capital recently said his party would contest 80 to 100 seats in the state's assembly polls. Though experts feel that the NCP and Congress will go for a tie-up as then they will have a better chance of upsetting the claims of BJP.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also be playing a bigger role in the forthcoming elections and who knows it may outdo its own expectations. The districts bordering Uttar Pradesh are in the influence of BSP and it might play an important role there. The BSP has already launched special drive to gear up for assembly elections. It has been conducting conventions of different communities throughout the state, in view of implementing 'social engineering' like in Uttar Pradesh. Besides targeting other upper castes, the party is concentrating on Brahmin community.

The party has already conducted conventions of different segments of the society in different parts of the state. Besides, the BSP has become the first party in the state to declare it candidates for assembly elections that are five months away. Following its election strategy, the BSP has already declared its candidates in 62 constituencies. Of them, maximum number of seats has been allotted to Brahmins, Rajputs are on the second, while OBCs are on the third. This has indicated the strategy of the BSP as how it is going in polls in November.

State president of BSP Bhujbal Singh Ahirwar, who’s party decided not to contest civic body polls, is upbeat after the victory of a former BSP worker in the recently held the Malajkhand municipality polls as an independent.

The BJP on the other hand after having introduced 33 percent reservation for women in the party, is working overtime to woo women voters. The party is giving final touches to specially designed campaign to target women. Conventions of women are being convened at district-level and they are being informed about women oriented schemes introduced by the State Government.

Going by the past records of the last assembly elections, there were 3.79 crore voters in the state out of which 1.81 voters used their franchise including 1.12 crore females. The voting percentage in the election was 57.25, which included 62.14 percent female votes. Sensing the important of women voters, the BJP has prepared a strategy to target women across the state. The party has prepared date-wise programmes for women conventions in each district. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is touring constituencies, is addressing women informing about party’s attitude towards fairer sex. Chouhan has already addressed over a dozen such meetings.

In past four years, the State Government has launched several schemes oriented towards the women. The most recent being 'Usha Kiran Yojana'. Laxmi Yojana has been a grand success and it has been implemented in other states as well. Besides the Laxmi Yojana other schemes like the Janani Express Yojana, Janani Suraksha Yojana, have helped both the women and the BJP.

Chouhan is working on a strategy that walks on the line of striking a rapport with smaller but influential social groups in addition of holding caste and sub-caste panchayats. In the recent past, he has already orgnaised panchayats of Kotwars, women, sports persons, physically challenged, scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, farmers, youths and others. The decision of giving pension to MISA detainees was also one of those decisions that may not seem important in the present but it becomes vital when one considers that this not only helped the BJP in gaining support from over 2,000 families but also generated goodwill among the middle and lower class working group.

While the BJP continues to chip away at the smaller groups and working towards strengthening and broadening its support base, the main opposition Congress is still struggling to present a united face of the party and looking for 'big issues' which till now has eluded them . The recent corruption charges against one of the BJP ministers came as a god-send gift, but by the time Congress could wake up and grab the chance, the minister resigned and the issue was consigned to flames.

The visit of Sonia Gandhi did nothing spectacular to lift the dropping shoulders of the state Congress workers. Suresh Pachouri , the state Congress chief it seems is still grappling with the inner intricacies. Congress’s chance of a victory in Madhya Pradesh, like in Chhattisgarh appears grim.

Ends

Madhya Pradesh political analysis May

On the one hand the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has swung into election mode by attacking on Congress led UPA, while on the other the state Congress has hardly got its campaign off the ground. Over the past one week, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the BJP have been busy attacking the Centre on price rise, and an alleged supply of substandard wheat and several other issues.

The BJP election in-charge for MP, Venkaiah Naidu has made it clear to party workers in no ambigious term that corrupt image is something the party would just not tolerate. Naidu has time and again cited the precedence of Gujarat where the clean image of the government and its developmental agenda won it assembly polls hands down and he has reiterated that the party would not want to compromise on the formula.

This new ‘clean-image’ formula took its first toll on Health Minister Ajay Vishnoi after he was asked by the BJP central leadership to resign after his brother’s premises was raided by the Income Tax Deprtment in the wake of alleged medicine purchase scam by the state health department.

More heads could roll as three present ministers of the cabinet have been charged with allegedly demanding donations from state officials. This include forest minister Kunwar Vijay Shah, Minister of state Harendejeet Singh `Babbu’ and Fisheries minister Moti Kashyap. In all the cases the complainer has been government servants and bureaucrats.

According to sources a list is being chalked out to ensure that the `tainted’ faces are distanced from the government as soon as possible so that by the time the electioneering is at peak, the negative impact of these ministers are dulled. Many of the sitting MLAs are also sure to lose tickets, but the tainted ministers are naturally on top of the agenda.

Rumors have it that at least three ministers might soon be dropped from the state cabinet and the one facing the sharpest axe is revenue minister Kamal Patel. Six ministers have reportedly being listed as liability on clean image of government but the proximity of three of them to the senior leaders in Delhi might save the day for them.In such situation, the party is likely to take some stern steps to distance itself from the black sheep and give its best shot at winning the second consecutive term in MP.

The speculation that Uma Bharti would soon make a comeback to BJP was finally laid to rest after BJP Prime Ministerial candidate L K Advani personally managed to thwart the proposal of re-entry of the firebrand leader into the party folds, putting such conditions that would certainly be rejected by the former MP Chief Minister.

During a high level core committee meeting, Advani overruled party president Rajnath Singh’s proposal to let Uma Bharti return.The party stalwart – who was instrumental in mentoring Bharti into a national leader – insisted that Uma could return only on condition of forgetting Madhya Pradesh politics and providing consent of contesting next Lok Sabha election from Uttar Pradesh.

Advani is upset that Uma, who was sacked from party for indiscipline, has not mended her ways and continues to attack leaders like Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj. Rajnath’s interest in getting Uma back was to build a strong counter force to the second generation leaders, but failing to marshal enough support in the core committee, he decided to forget the proposition for the time being.

Madhya Pradesh Analysis April

The Betul by-election outcome is likely to make a deep impact on the assembly elections scheduled in November this year. Buoyed by Betul result, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is likely to have a greater say in the future ticket distribution. The results have given the Chief Minister a greater say in preparing ground for the assembly elections.

BJP candidate Hemant Khandelwal polled a total of 3, 00,674 votes against 2, 65,234 scored by Sukhdev Panse from Congress, a sitting MLA. After the recent defeat of BJP in Khargone Lok Sabha and Shivpuri, Sanwer and Lanjhi assembly by-elections, the party candidate emerging triumph in Betul has provided the much needed relief to its workers.

After the Betul result, ministers in whose constituencies, the party was defeated might face some hard questions. Informed sources feel that in the event of poor showing by BJP, Chouhan would have been dependent upon party leadership and high command for working out strategies for forthcoming assembly elections but now his recommendations and views would find bigger space in the next round of assembly elections.

Though the BJP emerged triumphed in Betul still it lost two assembly segments Harda and Masaud which analyst feel is an indication that the ruling party is losing base in these segments.

Chindwara warhorse and Union commerce minister Kamal Nath has reasons to feel low these days. Firstly his candidate for the Rajya Sabha Seat, Vivek Tankha was not able to make into the upper house despite Kamalnath putting his best efforts and then came the Betul result.

Betul verdict came as a big blow to Kamal Nath as he had camped in Betul for a long time and campaigned extensively in favour of Congress candidate Sukhdev Panse. Sources close to Kamal Nath have suggested that he is blaming party colleague and state PCC chief Suresh Pachori among others for the debacle in Betul as he feels that the state Congress body was more interested in Kamal Nath losing his face than Sukhdev Panse winning. It must be also added that senior Congress functionaries had cautioned Kamalnath that Betul would be a tough nut and he should not waste his force there.

BJP won the Betul seat for the fifth time in a row. Congress during the campaigning had paraded its MPs Sachin Pilot and Priya Dutt besides AICC Secretary Jitin Prasad while BJP relied on party president Rajnath Singh to emerge winner.

Betul has always been a saffron bastion and the Congress has emerged victorious on only two previous occasions. Fist when the whole of India was experiencing the Indira wave and the second when the Congress was riding on popularity of Rajiv Gandhi.

The inner discontent that had emerged in the party ever since Suresh Pachori took over as the new state PCC chief has now lost some of its steam. This has been possible after every major faction was given a representation in various local Congress bodies. This has given Pachori much needed time to concentrate on other important matters like working on the groundwork for the assembly elections.

The state PCC is focusing on spreading UPAs achievement among the electorate in the state. Pachori has asked the workers to highlight achievement like 27 percent quota in educational institutions and setting up of first of its kind 'tribal university' in Amarkantak among the voters. The PCC is also working on the lines of linking both these ‘achievements’ to Arjun Singh , as they feel that this will increase the benefits as Arjun Singh is from Madhya Pradesh.

With only six-months in hand Bharatiya Janata Party has established an election cell in the state party headquarters under Anil Dave, state BJP vice president who has been appointed in-charge of the cell.

The BJP meanwhile launched the ambitious the state-level Mukhya Mantri Annapurna Yojana which would provide subsidized food grains to BPL families. Under this scheme, each BPL family (holder of blue ration card) would be provided 20 kilogramme food grains per month. Wheat would be provided at the rate of Rs three per kg and rice at the rate of Rs 4.50 per kg from ration shops.

The party had launched a similar program in the neighboring state of Chhattsigarh with much funfair. In the past two-years, ruling BJP Government has launched various people oriented welfare schemes in the State including 50 per cent reservation to women in Gram Panchayat level and ‘Ladli Laxmi Yojna’. Needless to say the forthcoming elections are playing on the minds of both the BJP and Congress, and both are leaving no stone unturned to woo the voters.

Madhya Pradesh political analysis-March 2008

Bharatiya Janata Party emerged victorious on all the three Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh in a biennial RS polls held here. All the three contestants of the BJP, Raghunandan Sharma, Prabhat Jha and Maya Singh emerged victorious by securing 58 votes each. Independent candidate Vivek Tankha, who had the support of Congress and the Samajwadi legislature, was defeated as he could muster only 51 votes.

Earlier the political atmosphere in Madhya Pradesh witnessed hectic activity in view of the impending Rajya Sabha elections. After a lot of deliberations and meeting the BJP was finally able to arrive at a consensus on the name of BJP Vice President and its Mahila Morcha state in charge Maya Singh, senior leader Raghunandan Singh a former renegade who was wooed back into the BJP from the BJS and Secretary Prabhat Jha who was the editor of party mouthpiece ‘Kamal Sandesh’.

Samajwadi Party MLA from Lanjhi constituency Kishore Samrite caused a flutter when he accused the Congress leaders including PCC chief Suresh Pachori of offering him bribe so as to vote in favour of independent candidate Vivek Tankha. Samrite was later suspended from the party.

Tankha who was earlier Advocate general when the Congress was in power under Digvijay Singh, claimed to have the support of the other smaller parties like the SP and the GGP. It’s no secret that the whole election management of Tankha was being managed and supervised by Union Minister of Commerce Kamal Nath.

The state is going to witness another bypoll which is scheduled to be held on the 12^th of April. The Betul bypoll was necessitated due to the death of BJP MP Vijay Kumar Khandelwal. Congress is being represented by Sukhdev Panse who also represents Masod in the Assembly. BJP has given ticket to Hemant Khandelwal who is the son of Vijay Khandelwal. Dr.Sunilam, president of the state unit of the Samajwadi Party and MLA from one of the assembly segments-Multai, has also filed his papers for the Betul seat.

Betul will be the last election before the assembly polls and all the parties have mounted their efforts to emerge victorious and go into poll mode with a positive outlook. BJP has pitched in eight ministers who have been made in-charge of separate assembly segments of the Betul Lok Sabha constituency. Recently Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan visited Betul twice and announced attractive sops for them including construction work of more than Rs 100 crore.

Congress goes into the poll with two wins under its belt including victories in Khargone Lok Sabha and Sanver assembly bypolls.

Many of the high profile candidates who were trying for a ticket form Betul including former MP Ghufran-e-Azam, Aslam Sher Khan, NSUI president Hemant Vagdare and Nakul Nath, son Kamalnath were left disappointed. Though sources close to Kamalnath have suggested that he decided to pull out the race as he wanted to play safe and plans to launch his son in the next assembly elections which are just eight months away from Chindwaara which has been his bastion for more than 20 years

Political pundits have already termed the Boston University graduate Nakul Nath, who recently joined the party as a potential challenge to Jyotiraditya Scindia and Arjun Singh’s son Ajay Singh. Ajay Singh was recently appointed Election campaign in-charge to the run-up to the state election.

The newly appointed state PCC chief Suresh Pachori got a glimpse of the tough times that is expected from the party cadre when PCC general secretary and spokesperson Manak Agrawal vacated his office situated in the state congress building in a huff. This was after Manak found his name missing in the list of the newly declared executive committee comprising 12 vice presidents, 17 general secretaries, 1 treasurer, 26 secretaries, and 50 working committee members.

After Manak it was the turn of Gufran-e-Azam, who resigned from PCC state executive as a member. The issue has threatened to turn into a major embarrassment for Pachori after Madhya Pradesh Congress legislator and Vice president of State Congress Committee Arif Aqeel lambasted Gufran-e-Azam’s resignation.

Gufran-e-azam in recent years has lost more political weight than he has gained. Azam at the time of Digvijay singh had a strong political clout and was considered close to Sonia Gandhi but with the emergence of other leaders belonging to the minority section in the capital like Areef Aqeel and his inability to make an impact on the electorate has led to his stature has being reduced.

It has also been reported from some quarters that the BJP is making efforts to get firebrand leader Uma Bharati back into the party. The move, notwithstanding opposition from certain sections within the party, has gained ground with the assessment that the firebrand leader, who is currently running her own outfit, the Bhartiya Jana Shakti (BJS), might cut BJP’s votes in the October/November polls if she does not get back into the party-fold.

In the first step towards by any party in furtherance to the state assembly election, BSP became the first party in the state to declare it candidates for assembly elections that are eight months away. The BSP has decided to apply the same successful formula of social engineering that was instrumental in its victory in Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati led BSP announced the party candidates for 62 seats and not surprisingly the maximum number of seats have been allotted to Brahmins followed by the Rajputs and the OBCs.

Political diary- Chhattisgarh ,Bihar and Madhya Pradesh

Chhattisgarh:

Chhattisgarh will be one of the most affected states due to delimitation of constituencies for Lok Sabha and Assembly seats. Jagdalpur in Bastar, Ambikapur, Surajpur, Premnagar and Paal would be changed into general seats from SC/ST at present. Kanker Lok Sabha seat will become a general seat from ST reserved at present and Janjgir-Korba, presently a general seat will now become a SCC reserved Lok Sabha seat. Ms Karuna Shukla, niece of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and president of All India women's wing of the BJP represents the constituency.

The heavy weights likely to be affected include former minister, Satyanarayan Sharma, whose traditional Mandir Harshoud seat will cease to exist and Ms Renuka Singh, another former minister, whose Prem Nagar seat is being converted into a general seat.

Ms Singh has challenged the recommendations of the Delimitation commission in Supreme Court and opposed the decision of the Cabinet to reduce ST reserved seats for Chhattisgarh Assembly from 34 to 29 and ST reserved seats in Lok Sabha from the state from four to three.

The former chief minister, Ajit Jogi, who represents a general seat-Mahasamund in the Lok Sabha has also pleaded like Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland, Chhattisgarh should also be exempted from delimitation of constituencies in the coming elections. The elections for the new assembly are due in November this year.

The Chief Minister Raman Singh is hoping that his ambitious 'Rs 3 per kg rice and Rs 10 per litre Kerosene for BPL families' scheme will help the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in wooing the rural voters where 42 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line.

The state BJP leadership recently had reasons celebrate as the party grabbed victory in the recent assembly by-poll in the Naxal stronghold of Keshkal (Bastar).

The saffron party has now decided to put enhanced efforts on the impoverished regions of the state where corruption and delays stops people from getting food grains and kerosene from the Public Distribution System (PDS) as political pundits are of the view that that if the welfare schemes are sincerely implemented the BJP would be able to enjoys its success in the forthcoming assembly election.

Raman Singh has issued instructions to the government officials asking them to maintain strict surveillance to prevent any malfunctioning and corruption in the rice distribution scheme or face stern actions.

Bihar:

The delimitation of constituencies would affect adversely several leaders, including state RJD president, Abdul Bari Sidiuqqui, health minister, Chandra Mohan Rai (Ram Nagar) and sports minister, Janardan Singh Segriwal (Jalalpur), whose constituencies will cease to exist in the coming assembly elections.

Sadhu Yadav, brother-in-law of the Railway Minister, Lalu Prasad Yadav ,who was elected from Gopalganj (general) seat to the Lok Sabha will have to search new constituency as Gopalganj has now become a SC reserved seat ,Ramchandra Paswan, LJP MP and brother of Ram Vilas Paswan and Surajbhan, another MP of LJP will also have to look for new seats as their current seats , Rosera and Balia have been scrapped.

In the 243 state assembly, now, there would be 37 SC and two ST seats and six out of 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar would be reserved for SCs

Patna Saheb and Pataliputra will have two new Lok sabha constituencies with changes in the areas of Patna and Barh constituencies. In Patna, there will be one new assembly seat from Kumhrar, which would be carved out from the existing Patna South, Masaurhi and Phulwari constituencies.

Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) has decided to don the political cap with the party now working to make its presence felt between the OBCs and the Minorities. MJ Akbar, who once successfully contested for the MP seat from Kishanganj (Bihar) is all set for a comeback, though this time he will be going to the Upper house courtesy JD (U).

Madhya Pradesh:

If the Lok Sabha elections are held immediately in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress would be gainer .The past trends of the by-elections also indicate, the BJP would be loser, as in all the by-elections, the BJP lost the seats won by it in the last elections. The BJP lost the Khargone Lok Sabha seat to the Congress in November. In the summer, the party could not retain the seat it had won in 2004 elections in Shivpuri.

The recent 60000 crores debt relief relief given to the Kisans by the finance minister, P Chidambaram, will definitely help gain the support of the cotton growers of Khargone-Khanwda and soyabean growers of Malwa region and also in central Madhya Pradesh. Many farmers had committed suicide in these regions due to heavy loans.

The former chief minister, Ms Uma Bharti, who would be fielding her candidates against the BJP, would also help the Congress in a triangular contest.

Politically stating Congress is on a revival mode after Suresh Pachori was made the state PCC chief recently. The old PCC had virtually become defunct under Subhash Yadav and inspite of many opportunities presented by the BJP, the PCC was no abe to successfully utilize them. Now the workers are hoping for a change in fortune under Pachori as he is more taller than Yadav and commands more respect among the senior leaders like Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scinda and that would help him to silent the intra-party fighting that has been brewing for quite a while now.

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) was hoping on using the Ram Sethu issue for electoral gains in Madhya Pradesh but it got a rude shock as the Ramsetu issue backfired as was clear from its performance in the Karnataka local body elections where the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) emerged as the winner.

BJP and Congress both have shifted their spotlight to the sizeable number of tribal votebank in Madhya Pradesh. This was evident after LK Advani chose Jabalpur to launch his 'sankalp yatra' while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a visit to the remote tribal belt of Jhabua.

Tribals dominate both Jhabua and Jabalpur regions. They play a decisive role in 91 of the state's 230 assembly constituencies. Of these, 41 are reserved for the community.

Tribals would play an even more significant role if the delimitation of constituencies takes place before the polls. Under the new system, the number of tribal seats would go up.

The significant of the tribal vote was demonstrated in the 2003 assembly polls at Nimar, Malwa, Mahakaushal and Vindhya regions. The BJP swung 15 percent of the tribal votes away from the Congress and won three-fourths of the tribal seats.

Though recent trends suggest that the Tribals appear to have distanced themselves from BJP as was evident in Khargone Lok Sabha and Sanver and Lanjhi assembly by-polls which the BJP lost.

Another important part in the whole picture is to be played by Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP), which has substantial strength in the tribal areas of the Mahakoshal region.

Both the BJP and the Congress are wary of GGP and if the Gonds in the Mahakoshal region, where 60 percent of the voters are tribals, decide to go with GGP, the electoral prospects of the two mainstream parties will surely suffer.

Similarly Mayawati’s BSP which recently organized a show of strength in Bhopal, will also give sleepless night to both BJP and Congress strategist as BSPs policy of wooing the Brahmin vote bank is sure to change the political equations in the state.