Madhya Pradesh analysis-December

The result of the recent assembly elections came out with no real surprise as the predictions of BJP coming back to power in the central state of Madhya Pradesh came true.

This time the BJP won 143 out of the total 230 assembly seats. In the previous election the saffron party had bagged 171 seats. Political Pundits have attributed this win to Shivraj singh Chauhan and his development oriented approach which was more than sufficient to cover the corruption charges that was synonymous with his previous government.

With the BJP top brass giving Chauhan complete charge of the state, he followed the Gujarat model whereby he denied tickets to many sitting MLAs and brought new faces.

It is also important to note that the difference between many of the winning candidates and those who lost was not much and it is quite true that on some another day BJP would have struggled to gain majority.

With the state witnessing a high polling percentage of more than 68%, both Congress and the BJP experienced contrasting emotions before the final results were announced as the general perception that a high polling percentage indicates resentment of the common mass against the incumbent government started doing the round.

But in the end, it was the Congress supporters who were left disappointed as internal squabbling and dissent left the party short of the number of seats that it was expecting.

The party under the state leadership of Suresh Pachori won 71 seats, up from the 38 seats which it won in the previous election. And it is no secret that if the selection of candidates was managed in a better way, the Congress could have definitely won more seats.

The bipolar political nature of the state was further strengthened amidst speculations of the lesser parties playing a bigger role as none of these parties could make a dent. The BSP came third winning 7 seats while Uma Bharti led BJS begged a poor 5 seats with the former CM herself losing her seat.

The disappointing performance of SP led to its state party chief being removed by SP supremo Mulayam Singh yadav. Madhya Pradesh state president Narayan Tripathi was removed and a new state president from Uttar Pradesh, Deep Narayan Yadav was appointed. Yadav is an MLA from Moth in Jhansi district of Uttar Pradesh.

State Congress party president Suresh Pachouri, was the man who was the most disappointed of all the Congress state leaders as of the 50 plus candidates that he had recommended only 8 of them could secure win.

On the other hand, Kamalnath emerged as the tallest of all, as 22 of his supporters made it to the Assembly. Former chief minister Digvijay Singh came second with 17 MLAs and Jyotiraditya was third with 13 MLAs.

Post the casting of votes and before the actual results came in, Congress was more ecstatic than the BJP as the high polling percentage gave Congress a reason to hope that it would win more than 90 seats which was what some experts had predicted.

Looking back to this election, BJP will breath a sigh of relief as the majority that it has secured is not that comforting as it appears. On the other hand Congress would curse their luck and their leaders as a better poll management and coordination among the senior leaders would have given BJP a run for their money.

A hung assembly in offering?

The fortunes of many a leaders from the major various parties including 1369 independents who are contesting for the 230 state assembly seats is now decided and, Who will win and who will not will be clear on the 8^th of December when the counting of ballot paper begins.The elections were marred by violence as a former minister and sitting BJP legislator,Sunil Nayak,was gunned down outside a polling booth allegedly by brother of his Congress rival.

The ruling BJP and the opposition Congress had different aspirations before going to the poll, but all that seems to have changed now. The BJP which was earlier hoping to win comfortably is now nervous that whether it will be able to reach the magical mark of 116 or not. For the Congress it is the opposite as political pundits who earlier gave it no chance to form the government are now divided and are of the view that Congress may just sneak in.

According to surveys conducted by various bodies post-polling, Congress will perform better than expected and will be able to win in more than 90 constituencies. The Congress leaders drawing heart from the above assessment are working on formulas and alliances which they might have to use in case they fall just short of the majority.

The lesser parties have done too much damage for the BJP. All predictions point out that the gap between the number of seat won by the Congress and the BJP will be too less for any of them to draw comfort.

Candidates of Uma Bharti’s BJS may well emerge in more than 10 seats. Similarly BSP is also expected to win more than 5 seats. If we count the Gondwana Gantantra party the expected loss of seat to non BJP and non Congress may well be in the region of 35- 45 assembly seats.

In some areas the vote share of the BJP candidates in particular has been eaten away by BJS candidates and this may well have a large bearing on the final picture.

With no party gaining majority one cannot rule out a scenario where the state witness a hung assembly or not will be decided by the independents and the lesser parties.

Independents have played crucial role in government formation in Madhya Pradesh once before, in 1969, when the Independent legislators helped Govind Narain Singh to form a government. The outgoing assembly has only two independent legislators, though it should not be forgotten that they still managed to garner 7.7 per cent of the total votes polled.

The BJP might seek the help of the estranged Uma Bharti and Mayawati in case it needs support. For Congress it will be Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP, and the independents if the need arises to look for partners.

The last ditch, whirlwind campaigning taken-up by Pachori is sure to help his party’s and his own cause. For he alongwith Union minister Kamalnath is a front runner for the post of chief minister. Similarly the general perception of the BJP leaders among the voters, specially the working class, is that of being corrupt which political pundits say has dented the party’s image.

Poll bugle sounded in Madhya Pradesh

Wheels and fortunes leading to Shaymla hills, which house the coveted residence of Madhya Pradesh CM, have started to roll in the state of Madhya Pradesh.

With the election commission announcing notification for holding polling in 230 constituencies in a single phase on November 27 the political atmosphere in the state has acquired the traditional vibrancy.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan is counting on good governance and development across the state, coupled with the global financial crisis, price rise and spurt in terrorist activities to help him keep Congress out of the state.

It has been secretly acknowledged even by the Congress leaders that Madhya Pradesh will be a difficult nut to crack. In case this happens, the one who would suffer the most will be former union minister and current PCC chief Suresh Pachori, as this might well spell doom for his political career.

The Congress could have reaped political mileage if only it would have properly highlighted the numerous corruption cases that have cropped up against many BJP leaders in the state.

At present Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and five other ministers of his cabinet are facing corruption charges. The CM is facing a case under Section 420 of the IPC for favoring a business house.

The former Health minister Ajay Bishnoi had to quit after Income Tax raids were conducted at his brothers’ residence and following his involvement in health scam.

The CAG report has pressed several corruption charges against the PWD and IT minister Kailash Vijayvargiya. Similarly, Revenue minister Kamal Patel has been charged with disproportionate wealth. A PIL raising these issues are pending in the Jabalpur High Court.

Irrigation minister Anup Mishra - he is the nephew of former PM Atal Vihari Vajpayee - used his powers to rent helicopter for personal use while the rent was paid from the state exchequer. The PHE minister Chaudhary Chandrabhan Singh is also under scanner for misusing his position and acquiring properties in his constituency. Chhindwara. Senior leader and Agriculture and Cooperatives minister Gopal Bhargava shot into limelight when he equated them with 'beggars'.

Similarly the Congress has still not been able to decide whether to politicize the arrest of Pragya Singh Thakur alias Sadhvi Purna Chetnanand Giri who was arrested for allegedly being a part of the Malegaon bomb blast.

A section of leaders feel that already the stigma of being soft on terror is making it difficult for leaders to answer their voters and they feel that raising Pragya’s issues may back fire and alienate the already discontent majority voters.

BJP has more or less taken care of countering the anti-incumbency wave by following the Gujarat model and neutralizing the damage by denying tickets to candidates whose report cards as sitting MLAs in the past five years were not found upto the mark.

As many as 78 sitting MLAs have been given tickets, while 28 have been denied keeping in view the anti-incumbency factor. Sources said that few more sitting MLAs might be dropped in the second list.

The experiment has worked well for the BJP in Gujarat, where as many as 49 of the 127 sitting MLAs were denied ticket.

The only issue on which both the Congress and BJP seem to agree is that this time the BJP will not be able win as substantially as it had in 2003, when it bagged 173 of the total 230 seats. The 170 plus seat in 2003 had more to do with two waves which were working simultaneously- the ‘Uma Bharti wave’ and the huge discontent against Digvijay Singh for his 10 years of not so good governance.

The ‘lesser’ parties like Uma Bharti’s BJS, the BSP , the GGP and the SP will also make sure that BJPs tally decreases. Though BJS doesn’t have a very past good record , but this time Uma Bharti has given her everything and this may result in her getting a pie from the cake. Similarly GGP may well increase its tally in the state with the party allotting tickets to Brahmin candidates in region of Rewa.

In case of a hung assembly, which for some doesn’t appear to be a too distinct possibility,these parties may well decide who sits in the opposition.

All in all it’s an election that holds better opportunity for speculators and expert commentators with room for many ‘ifs’ and more ‘buts’.