Saffron surge in Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh which sends 29 MPs to the parliament and is traditionally known for its bipolar politics is experiencing a changed sceanrio as lesser parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) have started making their presence felt in the central state.

In the previous 2004 general election, the BJP riding on a popular wave and a strong anti-Congress feeling won 25 of Madhya Pradesh's 29 seats with the rest going to Congress. Prominent winners of Congress included Kamalnath and JyotirAditya Scindia.

This time too, experts feel that BJP will romp home quite comfortably. This so called positive feeling for BJP is not being attributed to any national issues like internal security or job opportunities but local issues on which BJP is on a strong platform.

The state government under Shivraj Singh Chauhan has grown stronger with each passing day. His simple yet effective way of governing and his emphasis on development has made sure that the BJP cadre has enough related ammunitions to deal with any congress tirade.

The different state of affairs which the state saw under Digvijay Singh and the scenario under the present CM is quite stark.

In the previous general election the state was virtually nil when it came to good roads and regular electricity supply. But that has changed. Similarly the CM who himself comes from a rural background has made amply sure that the rural segment is not ignored due to which the state has witnessed an all-round development.

The party faced many a discontent during the previous assembly election but most of them were settled amicably as every party leader knows that in the present time BJP is going through a golden period in the state and it would be suicidal to go against the party wish, especially against the CM.

The BJP is functioning so well in the state that former Union minister Sushma Swaraj - the BJP's Election in charge for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand - is in the fray from this Vidisha constituency. Call it the real ‘feel good’ factor.

Out of the 29 seats there are more than at least half a dozen seat where the contested is expected to be one sided. Most of them in favor of BJP. Congress though can safely bet their money only on Kamalnath and Scindia.

The only million dollar question that one can speculate on is whether the BJP will be bale to improve on its previous tally of 25 seats or not. Politically it is very difficult, maybe next to impossible. In the previous election the mass came out to vote for two reasons; First to remove Congress and secondly to install BJP.

This time the first factor is irrelevant.

Secondly the region that is attached to UP is an area where SP and BSP do exercise some influence. Now it remains to be seen how much of that influence will be transformed into votes.

The lesser parties may not appear as a very big issue , but still they have kept both BJP and Congress busy.

Madhya Pradesh analysis

Except in Madhya Pradesh where the Congress is still to decide on the candidate’s name for CM it can be safely said that in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the two other states that go to poll, a consensus on the names of Ashok Gehlot and Ajit Jogi has been arrived upon.

In Madhya Pradesh, unlike in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, there are too many names that are doing the rounds for the chair of CM and it can be termed a wise decision by the Congress high command to not to declare any name as that may have fuelled the already simmering inner discontent in the state Congress.

Sources within the party say that Union Commerce minister Kamalnath and Jyotiraditya Scindia have emerged as the chief contender for the chair. They also cite the ‘Pratibha Patil’ incident and say they will not be too surprised if someone else emerges from the oblivion in case the Congress wins.

Experts feel that the BJP will be successful in hoisting the saffron flag in the Central state albeit with a lower margin. Shivraj Singh Chauhan has focused more on developing the rural areas as compared to the urban regions and it with be the electorates from these regions that will make sure that Chauhan emerges winner.

This was visible when in one of the biggest political mass gatherings in history of MP thousands of BJP workers and supporters gathered in Bhopal for the launching of the campaigning for assembly polls.

The huge number made both the PM aspirant Lal Krishna Advani and party president Rajnath Singh overjoyed and they will be hoping to get a sizable number of seats from Madhya Pradesh in the Lok Sabha polls which are due next year.

Those who follow Madhya Pradesh closely will say that Chauhan has acted very prudently in run-up to the elections. During the previous government most of the development related works, inaugurations, announcement etc were done when the polls were in sight but this time Chauhan has focused on development issues all through out his tenure which will be more politically more effective than the huge poll bonanzas and the mass stone laying functions that the electorate are accustomed to witness in wake of the elections.

The almost written off Uma Bharti sprang a surprise when she successfully hoisted a massive public rally in the heart of the capital which was more than enough to cause lose of sleep for both the BJP and Congress. This has diminished the hopes of Congress forming the next government more because if Uma manages to win a good number of seat she will be more comfortable in forming an alliance with the BJP rather than with the Congress.

Enormous pressure forced the Congress to announce the first list of candidates who will be contesting in the elections. All the 39 sitting MLAs of the Party have been given the tickets. But the BJP is still to announce its list and if reports are to be believed, more than 40 of the sitting MLAs who have been rated as non-performers by the electorate in various surveys will be denied tickets.

But the problem in such case will be more with the BJP rather than with the ‘denied MLAs’, for the Uma Bharti’s BJS and the BSP who have nothing to lose will be more than ready to lure the dissidents.

Also in the previous elections many of the BJP MLAs won with a very slender margin that too because of the dissatisfaction on part of the electorate with Digvijay Singh coupled with the BJP wave which was strengthened by Uma Bharti. The same may not happen this time.

Internal dilemma abounds for the BJP. Through out his tenure Chauhan has done good work but the MLAs who are seen as the visible face of the party do not have an image that they would like to go out with among the voters.